In this article, we will take a look at the best Week 11 NFL player prop bets from the 1 p.m. ET window. Using the Awesemo NFL Betting Player Props Tool, bettors can utilize it to maximize their profits and see which bets have the highest expected return on investment. Also, bettors can use OddsShopper to find which sportsbooks are offering the best prices for these player prop bets. Three bets stood out above the rest in the 1 p.m. ET window, so let’s see what best NFL prop bets are:
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Week 11 Best NFL Player Prop Bets
Tua Tagovialoa – Over 254.5 Passing Yards, -115 (FanDuel)
Tua Tagovialoa found himself back in the lineup last week and wound up saving the day. The second-year southpaw went 8-for-13 and 158 yards passing during an abbreviated performance against the Baltimore Ravens, and now the hope is that the Miami Dolphins can string together some wins at the end of the season. That all starts on Sunday with a seemingly easy matchup against the New York Jets, who rank dead-last in pass defense DVOA and allow the second-most yards per pass attempt.
According to Awesemo’s NFL Player Props Tool, Tagovialoa is projected to throw for 277 yards with a 70% expected win rate and 30% expected return on investment. Seven different quarterbacks have exceeded 254.5 passing yards against the Jets this season, with another one coming close at 235 yards. New York’s pass defense just suffered its worst performance last week, as Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills had 366 yards.
Nick Chubb – Over 83.5 Rushing Yards, -111 (SugarHouse)
Nick Chubb gets one of the best matchups in the NFL going against the Detroit Lions. Although the Lions played a tough game in Pittsburgh last week, that type of physicality probably took a toll on them. Chubb will be ready to break through the running lanes after missing last week’s game due to COVID-19 protocols. Prior to being absent last week, Chubb had 100-plus yards in three of those four contests, so facing the Lions will seem like one of those drills against the tackle dummies.
According to Awesemo’s NFL Player Props Tool, Chubb is projected to run for just over 100 yards with a 70% expected win rate and 29% expected return on investment. Surprisingly, only five different running backs have exceeded 83.5 rushing yards against the Lions this season. However, as we all know, Detroit’s run defense is one of the worst in the league, ranking 29th in run defense DVOA and allowing the third-most yards per carry.
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Mark Andrews – Under 61.5 Receiving Yards, -114 (DraftKings)
Mark Andrews and the Baltimore Ravens will travel to Chicago for Sunday’s matchup against the Chicago Bears. This is going to be a tough matchup for Andrews since the Bears have only allowed one tight end (Tyler Higbee, 68) to exceed the 60-yard mark this season. Even some of the best at this position, like Darren Waller (45), Pat Freiermuth (43) and T.J. Hockenson (42), have all failed to get to the 50-yard mark.
According to Awesemo’s NFL Player Props Tool, Andrews is projected to have 48.3 receiving yards with a 70% expected win rate and 32% expected return on investment. Andrews did have six receptions on eight targets for 63 yards and a touchdown in the Ravens’ last game, a very easy matchup against the Miami Dolphins. However, he did fail to get 50 yards in each of his two previous games. Look for the Bears to key in on Andrews, especially if the usually unpleasant Chicago weather is going to force more passes to the middle of the field.
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