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NFL Betting Picks: Super Bowl LV Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
NFL Prop Bet: Sammy Watkins UNDER 3.5 Receptions -134 (DraftKings)
Despite all the hurdles and potential issues, Super Bowl Sunday is finally upon us. The NFL season, like all sports, had to navigate the COVID situation, but they were able to avoid any major disruptions and now get to showcase on of the more intriguing matchups in recent memory. We are set to kick off Super Bowl LV from Tampa Bay’s home stadium, and the betting options are endless.
Before I dive into my favorite prop bet make sure to head over to the AwesemoOdds Home Page, where we have extensive betting breakdowns on everything you need to get ready for what should be a fantastic game between two high-powered teams.
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My favorite player prop for the Super Bowl involves Sammy Watkins. He has not played since Week 16 and is still questionable heading into Sunday. Still, there are lines available, and I have interest shorting Watkins’ receptions prop. The line sits at 3.5 receptions, and although the under is slightly juiced, I still lean towards a relatively quiet game for Watkins.
The key issue here is the Chiefs have played the entire playoffs without Watkins, and they have an embarrassment of riches on the outside. Besides the stars in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, they have Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson and several others who have proven they can contribute. There are a lot of scenarios where Watkins is active but doesn’t take on a full allotment of snaps. If that’s the case, 3.5 catches looks like a fantastic prop to short, as he wasn’t exactly racking up receptions when healthy. Watkins averaged 5.5 targets per game, and that number was inflated by a strong 9-target game to start the season. He had 13 targets over his final three games, which is a slight drop-off from where he was earlier in the season.
With so many weapons and Watkins still questionable, there is a lot to like in going under 3.5 receptions in this spot. The matchup with Tampa to me is secondary, as this is more of a volume issue. Plus, reinserting a player into the gameplan for the Super Bowl seems problematic considering how many options Kansas City has. Keep an eye on the status as we get closer to Sunday, as any word that Watkins will be limited makes this spot even better. The under is -134 on several sites, which is more than reasonable given this situation. It is rare we get props on players who are questionable like this, but the Super Bowl provides us that opportunity to take advantage.
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