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NFL Betting Picks: Super Bowl LV Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
Current Line: Kansas City -3 (-115) , Total: 55.5
We have finally arrived at the big game, as Super Bowl LV is set to kickoff from Raymond James stadium in Tampa Bay. The NFL couldn’t be happier as they get two iconic quarterbacks facing off in one of the most anticipated Super Bowls in recent memory. There are a ton of storylines heading into this one and we have some many places to go in the betting world. Prop bets certainly are prevalent for the Super Bowl with lines on literally anything you can think of, but we also do have the traditional spread and moneyline to breakdown.
Before I dive into my breakdown of the game, make sure to head over to the Awesemo Odds page where we have extensive betting breakdowns on every prop you need to get ready for what should be a fantastic game between two high powered teams.
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Chiefs
The defending Super Bowl champs are looking to repeat as they rolled through the AFC playoffs once again. Like all teams, there were some minor speed bumps, but Kansas City survived Cleveland without Patrick Mahomes late, and then looked like the best version of themselves against Buffalo in the AFC Championship game. They only lost two games during the year and one was during Week 17 when they were resting players so it has been an incredible campaign coming off the Super Bowl. Kansas City has everything you could ask for, but it is without a few key offensive lineman, which will test its depth upfront. During the season, KC only allowed 1.4 sacks per game, which was Top-5 in the league and holding up against Tampa’s front is one of the keys to this game.
Looking at this offense, we know all about the weapons on the outside with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce both incredibly difficult matchups and live to explode at any point. Kelce comes in having seen double-digit targets in six straight games and had a massive 15 targets against Buffalo last time out. Although it seems incredibly unlikely for him to be hoisting the MVP trophy, he will be a guy to potentially look at for touchdown or receptions props if he continues to see that type of volume. In addition, the Chiefs are expected to welcome back Sammy Watkins, who is another weapon to an already loaded offense. Mahomes’ toe injury also seems to be a non-issue so outside the offensive line its all systems go for the best offense in football. The Chiefs average 6.4 yards per play, which was the best in the entire league so Tampa Bay has a major challenge ahead of them.
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay had to win three straight road games to get here and did so in impressive fashion. After taking out a Washington team without a quarterback, they had to travel to New Orleans to take on a Saints team that swept them in the regular season. The Bucs were able to get to Brees and forced three interceptions, which was the key to Tampa marching onto the NFC Championship game against the Packers. In Lambeau, they were able to find a timely interception and make enough plays to win a competitive 31-26 battle against Aaron Rodgers. In that game, Brady threw three picks of his own, but the defense made enough plays, including five sacks, which is where the Chiefs could be vulnerable.
In the three playoff games Tampa has scored 31, 30 and 31 points, so the offense is doing its part even if it’s a result of the defense giving them opportunities. This Tampa Bay front is fantastic at stopping the run and have shown they can rush the passer and force big-time turnovers. This season, the Bucs are allowing just 3.7 yards per rushing attempt, which is best in the entire league and should make it difficult if KC tries to establish a ground attack.
Offensively, Tampa has everything you could ask for as Tom Brady has a ton of weapons on the outside and two running backs that he can lean on as well. The emergence of Leonard Fournette in the playoffs has been a big boost as he is a capable pass-catcher and just one more guy Brady can look to when dropping back. With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and a healthy Antonio Brown on the outside Tampa should have opportunities to put up points and try to keep pace with this Chiefs’ attack.
Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-115)
Clearly, both teams have the talent and personnel to be hoisting the trophy after 60 minutes and, like most games, this will come down to turnovers and execution. The Chiefs’ offensive line is a concern, but their play calling is fantastic and Mahomes is as good as it gets working out of trouble and still being effective. Kansas City does start slow at times, but with its high-powered ability and big-game experience, that may just be another time to pick up more exposure to them via live betting. Their defense is underrated and even though Tampa Bay has gotten the job done, I do believe Brady is more likely to commit turnovers in this spot.
The spread sits at -3 with slight juice (-115) to Kansas City and that is where I will be focusing my attention. All indications is that this is closer to going to 3.5 than 2.5, so I feel comfortable getting down my action before the game and possibly adding more if the Chiefs start slow. Simply put, they are the better team and if they protect Mahomes and mitigate this pass rush, I believe they will move the ball with ease and repeat as Super Bowl Champions.
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