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NHL Betting Picks: Blue Jackets vs. Lightning | Jan. 21
The Blue Jackets will be playing their fifth game of 2021 tonight, which is already two more than the Lightning, who have been off since Jan. 15. We will obviously get into some situations like this throughout the year with COVID-19 suspensions, and they’ll be worth looking closely at in the odds. The Lightning have two dominant wins under their belt, and as the rested team, they’re obviously getting a ton of love here give the fact they enter as heavy road favorites.
It’s pretty tough to take too much out of Tampa’s efforts this far, as they’ve only played the Blackhawks, who legitimately might be the worst team in the NHL this year. Steven Stamkos looks fully recovered, though, which is huge for Tampa’s chances this year given Nikita Kucherov’s injury. Andrei Vasilevskiy has also looked strong in net, stopping 57 of 60 shots faced this far, and Tampa’s lethal power play has looked intact. They ranked fifth in that area last season and have already converted just under 30% of their chances in 2021.
The Jackets have struggled to get going since returning to action and have allowed an uncharacteristically high number of shots on goal thus far. Joonas Korpisalo has played well in net for them, though, and he seems likely to get the start here. Korpisalo has stopped 67 of 71 shots faced and was in the net for their only win over the Red Wings. Scoring has been an issue for the Blue Jackets as they’ve yet to score a goal on the power-play through four games, but they’ve still shown some consistency on special teams and carry an 88% efficiency rate on the penalty kill. The Jackets have been sluggish but not terrible, and when their offense finds the next gear (or any gear at all), wins should come more frequently, especially if Korpisalo keeps up his level of play.
Best Bet: Blue Jackets Moneyline +140 (BetMGM; PointsBet; Will Hill)
This matchup marks the first home game for Columbus and feels like a solid spot for the true Blue Jackets to stand up. This was a team who pushed Tampa Bay to two overtime games and multiple one-goal affairs in the playoffs last season and shouldn’t be intimidated by the now Kucherov-less Lightning here. As mentioned above, the Blue Jackets penalty kill and solid goaltending (again, we’re assuming Korpisalo is starting) can counteract a lot of the good things Tampa does. That should make this game another close one, similar to what we saw in the playoffs between these teams last year.
If the games going to be close, I like taking these inflated odds on Columbus, which likely doesn’t deserve to be this big a home underdog against anyone. Finally, while Tampa comes in rested with the season only being five or six games long right now, I’d rather be on the team that has a couple more games under their belt; fatigue is certainly not an issue right now, but competitive rust definitely could be. This is a nice spot for a Blue Jackets upset, and the odds make it my favorite NHL betting pick of the night.
Bonus: Islanders (-1.5) Puckline +175 (DraftKings)
The Islanders have already pitched two shutouts this season and will be taking on a Devils team that has looked scrappy, but that also has been relying on insanely hot goaltending to mask their huge defensive weaknesses. This mismatch on special teams is massive, as the Devils had the 11th-worst power play in the league last year and haven’t improved on that mark at all in 2021. Now they will be going up against the Islanders, who sit third in penalty-kill efficiency. Over the last two years, the Islanders are 5-1 against the Devils with an average +2.0 goal differential over that span. The big odds for the Isles (-1.5) puck line should be taken here.
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