NASCAR returns to the “Magic Mile” for 301 laps around New Hampshire Motor Speedway this Sunday for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. After analyzing the Vegas odds, I have found some of the best NASCAR betting picks to make for this weekend’s race.
NASCAR Betting Picks & Vegas Odds: Foxwoods Resort Casino 301
Outright Favorites
How much can one week of underperformance affect the betting public? A lot it appears.
After opening up as the outright favorite on Monday at +250, Kyle Larson has fallen back to +400 sitting third in odds. For Larson in 2021, this is pretty unprecedented for him not only to go backward in odds but get leapfrogged by two fellow drivers in the process. Admittedly, last weekend at Atlanta was a poor showing for the No. 5 team, especially late in the race as Larson faded. However, that was the low-horsepower package and this week’s race at New Hampshire will feature the high-horsepower package. In the past three races using this aero setup, Larson has finished 2nd, 2nd, and 1st.
The two drivers who have jumped Larson are the Joe Gibbs teammates of Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. Hamlin opened up at +800 and now sits as the favorite at +475. Erstwhile, Truex was +850 to win on Monday and is now +500. In the DFS realm, this duo has been gaining traction as potential dominators, if not outright winners come Sunday. It appears the fervor in DFS is matching that of the betting world as these two have seen their outright odds shaved in half.
The peculiar name, or at least it should be, is what’s happened to Brad Keselowski‘s odds. Assuming the movement is based on his win last season at New Hampshire, Keselowski has moved from +1100 to +650, tying him for the fourth-highest odds with Kyle Busch. Keselowski may have a win and numerous top-10 finishes at Loudon but his numbers in the 750-horsepower package, in 2021, have been underwhelming.
Top 10 and Top 20 Bets
This week, instead of offering their typical top-five bets, DraftKings Sportsbook has expanded into top-10 and top-20 bets. This is a welcome change, especially at a track like New Hampshire where those within the top-five should all come from just three camps: Joe Gibbs, Hendrick, and Penske.
Looking at plus money bets in the top-10 range, Aric Almirola jumps off at +220. The safer bet would be siding with Tyler Reddick at +150. For the season, Reddick has been far more consistent and has shown a knack for starting high and finishing there. Almirola, on the flip side, has had one of the better Jekyll/Hyde seasons of recent memory. Firmly out of the playoffs, Almirola will need big swings to give himself chances at winning or at least finishing high like the No. 10 team did last weekend at Atlanta. Since joining SHR, Almirola has no finish worse than 11th and his best tracks have been the corollaries of New Hampshire; 11th at Phoenix, 6th at Richmond, and 4th at Nashville.
On the top-20 side, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. offers plus odds at +100. In all seven races utilizing the 750-horsepower package, Stenhouse has yet to finish any worse than 20th. At much more intriguing odds comes Corey LaJoie, currently +300. In three of the past four races using the high-horsepower aero package, LaJoie has finished 22nd or better.
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Prop Bets
The following are a list of interesting props being offered by DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Race Winning Manufacturer: Toyota +150
- Top Chevrolet Car: William Byron +575
- Race Matchup: Joey Logano +110 over Chase Elliott
- Top Ford Car: Joey Logano +350
- Race Matchup: Aric Almirola -110 over Ross Chastain
- Race Matchup: Kyle Busch -115 over Brad Keselowski
- Group C: Aric Almirola +320
- Group D: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +275
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