Goodyear 400 NASCAR Expert Betting Picks, Prop Bets & Predictions

NASCAR celebrates Mother’s Day at Darlington Speedway his weekend with the Goodyear 400 as part of its Throwback Weekend. Let’s vault into this week’s top NASCAR betting picks, predictions, outright favorites and some prop bets to add to your betting ticket on DraftKings Sportsbook this Sunday.

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Goodyear 400 NASCAR Betting Picks & Props

Outright Favorites

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Kyle Larson is this week’s favorite to win. We are on the precipice of Larson being the outright favorite from week to week. Despite starting 14th, Larson opened at +550 at DraftKings Sportsbook and currently sits at +400 with -420 odds for a top-10 finish. With Larson’s odds getting shaved that much, this is the warning shot for future weeks that if you have any plans on jumping on Larson as an outright, you had better get in early.

Elsewhere, among the top favorites, there hasn’t been much movement at all. The drivers that are more legitimate threats to win, Denny Hamlin (+600) and Martin Truex Jr. (+800), still sit where their odds opened. Maybe most DFS players and bettors are assuming this Darlington race is being run with the 550-horsepower package like all three Darlington races in 2020. Instead, NASCAR is utilizing the 750-horsepower package, in which the Joe Gibbs teammates have excelled. Darlington has always been a strong track for Hamlin, and with the changes in setup, this should play right into Hamlin’s wheelhouse.

The truth of the matter is, without practice, it’s tough to know what to expect at Darlington with this being the first time NASCAR will have run here in the short-track package. Much like this year’s Bristol race, it makes sense to abstain from outright and instead focus smaller units on top-fives or outrights.

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Top 5 NASCAR Betting Picks

Finding value on top-fives becomes increasingly tough as DraftKings Sportsbook refuses to give anything worth chasing that’s +500 or higher. If willing to believe in the idea that giving the drivers 200 extra horsepower is going to lead to exponentially more wrecks at a place like Darlington, then perhaps it’s worth adding Chris Buescher (+1000) to tickets. However, outside of attrition galore and a pit cycling strategy, it is tough to envision Buescher finishing that high.

There are two top-five bets that don’t need a crazy narrative to come to fruition. Both Matt DiBenedetto and Tyler Reddick are +475 to finish in the top five. DiBenedetto is riding a string of consistency with five straight top-12 finishes and back-to-back top-five finishes in Talladega and Kansas. Although neither of the previous races correlates whatsoever to Darlington, the fact is DiBenedetto and the No. 21 team are consistently running well at different tracks in different packages. There is no reason to think he will not continue that this week in a package he’s done fairly well in 2021.

As per Reddick, he has finished seventh in back-to-back weeks, but this optimism is more about the track. Darlington is a steeply banked, high tire-wear venue where speed can generally be found up top if a driver is willing to go there. Riding the rails is exactly what Reddick did last season in his seventh-place finish in the Spring day race. P.J. Walsh of Action Network has identified Reddick as a driver he’s willing to bet outright. A flier on Reddick to win is worth going after as a top-five as well.

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NASCAR Prop Bets

The following is a list of props, being offered by DraftKings Sportsbook, that you may find interesting as ways to get action on the Goodyear 400:

Best Finishing Position – Race: Aric Almirola -114 versus Erik Jones.
Best Finishing Position – Race: Christopher Bell +100 versus Ryan Blaney.
Number of drivers to finish on lead lap: Under 18.5 -139
Best Finish Group B: Joey Logano +350
Best Finish Group D: Matt DiBenedetto +250
Top Chevrolet Car: Chase Elliott +350
Top Ford Car: Joey Logano +425

This week’s parlay is combining Logano’s outright number with Justin Allgaier’s outright in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race. Logano has seen his odds drop from +1100 to +1400 despite nothing more than people jumping on the Larson bandwagon. Logano has been a better driver in the high-horsepower, low-downforce package in 2021, with finishes of second, sixth and third in those three races. Those wanting a parlay that may be seen as a more “surer thing,” then I pivot off Logano’s outright instead to his bet above as the top Ford car.

Allgaier is currently tied with Ty Gibbs for the sixth-highest outright odds in the Steakhouse Elite 200. While they both work from a DFS perspective, Allgaier is better from a betting perspective due to history at Darlington, his recent win at Atlanta and a win last year at the somewhat similar Dover. Combining Logano and Allgaier’s outright numbers gives +13400 odds paying $1,350 on a $10 bet. If instead opting to combine Allgaier with Logano as the top Ford, that is still +4625 odds, turning a $10 investment into $472.50.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com