The sixth race of the NASCAR season goes green this Sunday at Atlanta. Let’s talk about this week’s outright favorites, top-five bets, and some props I’m finding value in for the Folds of Honor 500.
NASCAR Bets: Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Picks
Folds of Honor Favorites
The trio of Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, and Martin Truex Jr. opened the week as early favorites at +650. Former multiple-time Atlanta winner, Kevin Harvick, trailed closely behind at +700, tied with Chase Elliott. Fast-forward to this morning, and a little joggling upfront has taken place with Harvick now the slight favorite at +600. Perhaps the biggest gainer, from the drivers starting upfront, has come from Denny Hamlin. Hamlin saw his number go from +1000 on Monday to +700, tying him with Larson for the third-best odds.
All week, my heart and mind have been tied to Larson, expecting him to pick back up where he left off at Vegas. If you waited on a better number on DraftKings Sportsbook, you’ve gained a little more juice, as he now sits at +700. If I weren’t betting Larson outright, my money would shift to Keselowski at +750. His comments earlier in the week highlighting how this season’s 550 horsepower package was similar to the 2019 package that earned him the victory here, as opposed to last year’s package, were significant and led me to this shift. Furthermore, it was Larson who led the most laps in that 2019 race, so it all circles back to the driver of the No. 5.
Top Five Bets
Something I reference a lot in the Strategy Shows with Jason Floyd is drivers having certain “scripts”. As in, if you present this type of track to this specific driver, with mitigating weather factors, they will excel. When you think of Alex Bowman, you should think back to where we’ve seen him perform his best. His two career Cup victories have come at Chicagoland and Auto Club. These two venues have something in common – high tire-wear ovals. What did the victories at those two venues have in common? They happened on cooler days where these tracks had extra grip.
If today’s forecast holds, it’s not going to get above 60 degrees and it’s going to stay mostly cloudy. This is playing right into Bowman’s hands as far as the track type and weather for him to finish in the top five. Bowman’s top-five number at DraftKings Sportsbook is+400. If you’d like to buy even more into the idea that this race looks oddly reminiscent of the 2019 race, Ryan Blaney was leading that event late before he cut down a tire and had to pit. Blaney’s top-five number isn’t near as appealing as Bowman’s, but at +225 a $10 bet will yield you $32.50.
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Race Props
Here is a list of interesting head-to-heads or props being offered by DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Best Finishing Position – Race: Kyle Larson (+100) versus Kevin Harvick
- Best Finishing Position – Race: Tyler Reddick (-120) versus Matt DiBenedetto
- Best Finishing Position – Race: Ryan Newman (-115) versus Cole Custer
- Manufacturer of Winning Car: Ford +155
- Best Finish Group B: Brad Keselowski +230
- Best Finish Group D: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +280
- Best Finish Group E: Ryan Newman +295
Today’s parlay is going to include Ryan Newman, with his bet to win his group, plus Adam Scott in the Honda Classic. Scott currently sits at -2, tied for 27th place after shooting +2 on Saturday. Jason Rouslin posted this blurb about Scott in his Round 4 Honda Classic Picks:
“Adam Scott ($9,700) Having gained strokes on his approaches in all three rounds and having gained in the other three at least once during the tournament, Scott would be one of my biggest candidates to come from way behind and post a number. Sitting 8 back, if he can go out and post 62, I think it wins.”
Admittedly, to go after a golfer for a win, especially one who currently sits eight strokes off the lead, I’m going to need a lot. However, I can get Scott for a top-10 finish at +450, a mark he’s only three strokes away from. If you pair Scott’s top-10 odds with Newman’s odds to win his group in a parlay, you get +2073 odds paying $108.63 on just a $5 bet.
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