The Finish Line: NASCAR Betting Picks for the Geico 500 on DraftKings Sportsbook

The 10th race of the NASCAR season goes green this Sunday at Talladega. Let’s talk about this week’s NASCAR betting picks with an emphasis on some of my outright favorites, top-five bets and some props with value for the GEICO 500.

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NASCAR Betting Picks & Props for GEICO 500 | April 25

GEICO 500 Favorites

Betting superspeedway races is fun while also being infuriatingly tricky. Anyone and everyone has a chance should the circumstances dictate enough chaos. However, in the end it always feels like it’s the same drivers winning these types of events. People will inevitably point to Michael McDowell winning the Daytona 500 as the ultimate proof that anyone can win a superspeedway race. Yes, McDowell won that race. Yes, McDowell’s odds were high at 80-1. However, don’t take the outlier and assume that what McDowell accomplished can become the norm. Don’t forget, if not for Joey Logano blocking and wrecking his own teammate, that Cinderella story about McDowell never gets written.

What the trends do show is that the last six Talladega winners have all started 12th or better. With the starting grid formula placing the top-tier teams in the higher starting positions, it seems all but a formality at this point that someone from Joe Gibbs, Hendrick or Penske is going to win the GEICO 500. With that being said, the current top 10 outright favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook drive for the following teams:

  • Denny Hamlin, +650 (Joe Gibbs)
  • Joey Logano, +900 (Penske)
  • Ryan Blaney, +1000 (Penske)
  • Chase Elliott, +1100 (Hendrick)
  • Brad Keselowski, +1100 (Hendrick)
  • Aric Almirola, +1600 (Stewart-Haas)
  • Kyle Busch, +1800 (Joe Gibbs)
  • Ricky Stenhouse Junior, +1800 (JTG Daugherty)
  • Alex Bowman, +2000 (Hendrick)
  • William Byron, +2000 (Hendrick)
  • Kevin Harvick, +2000 (Stewart-Haas)
  • Kyle Larson, +2000 (Hendrick)

Ford makes up three of our top five favorites, all from the Penske stable. Although there are a few deviations with Denny Hamlin last year, and Chase Elliott two years ago, Ford has won nine of the past 11 Talladega races. Talladega’s history shows these odd trends where a manufacturer will get something figured out and go on a string of wins here. Currently Ford and Penske owns seven of those nine wins. If forced to choose one driver, side with Ryan Blaney out of the three. For correlation with manufacturer or team, bet Matt DiBenedetto at +3000.

This all being said, it’s a tough week to get behind a singular driver. Superspeedway weeks are really better for DFS than playing the NASCAR betting picks market.

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Top Five Bets

To play some longer odds that don’t depend on a driver actually winning Sunday’s race, placing some top five bets may be where to make the mark. Based on track history and form at superspeedways, all of the following are good bets for top-five finishes:

  • Ryan Preece +750
  • Aric Almirola +275
  • Austin Dillon +275
  • Alex Bowman +300
  • Erik Jones +750
  • Ryan Newman +550
  • Bubba Wallace +475
  • Chris Buescher +750
  • Ross Chastain +900

Obviously, not all of these drivers can finish in the top five. However, they all possess the ability to finish in the top five. Bets-wise, it makes more financial sense to chase Ross Chastain or Chris Buescher’s numbers. However, in practicality’s sense, Almirola feels like the most likely scenario out of everyone listed above. If betting Alex Bowman or Aric Almirola on these smaller odds, may as well bet there outright as well and at least be rewarded should they win.


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Race Props

Here is a list of interesting head-to-heads or props being offered by DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Best Finishing Position – Race: Aric Almirola -122 over Martin Truex Jr. If any book is offering a driver versus Truex, take the bet against Truex.
  • Top Chevrolet Car: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +850
  • Top Ford Car: Ryan Blaney +400
  • Best Finish Group B: William Byron +300
  • Best Finish Group E: Ryan Newman +300
  • Grid Position of Race Winner: Under 9.5 -106

This week’s parlay is going to force you to sweat Talladega and then sit on your hands until Thursday. As per Talladega, take Newman’s top-five finish prop at +550. In two of Newman’s past three Talladega races, he has finished in the top five. In four of his past six Talladega races, he has top-10 finishes. Combine this with Kyle Trask‘s +800 odds to be drafted in the first round, and this combo gives +5750 odds.

Gamers can safely assume that five quarterbacks are going to go in the first round. However, when looking at how many teams would gladly take a quarterback you end up with more teams than quarterbacks. A quarterback-needy team is going to either trade down into the late first, picking up valuable later-round picks while also giving themselves the ability to take Trask, or a team will trade up into the late first in order to grab Trask and have his fifth-year option instead of hoping he falls into the second.


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Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com

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