The fourth race of the NASCAR Cup season commences today in the desert of Las Vegas. Therefore, let’s dive into the outright favorites, top-five bets and various NASCAR betting picks for the Pennzoil 400.
NASCAR Bets: Pennzoil 400 Picks
Pennzoil 400 Favorites
The week opened with former Las Vegas winner Kevin Harvick (+650) as the outright favorite. That’s exactly where he sits today with less than 12 hours before the green flag waves. Now as a slightly higher favorite at +600. In fact, not much has changed at the top as far as outrights go. The number you got on DraftKings Sportsbook on Monday is just about the same as this morning.
If you were wanting to place a bet on the Penske trio and were hoping for something a bit more favorable, your patience has paid off. Brad Keselowski, starting 10th, has gone from +650 to +800. Joey Logano, rolling off the grid in the 15th, has seen the exact same rise from +650 to +800. The furthest of the stable, Ryan Blaney in 26th, went from +1100 to 1300. If you want to add Matt DiBenedetto to this group, due to the Woods Brothers’ affiliation with Penske, jumped from +3000 to +5000.
My expectation is for the majority of betters to follow the path of DFS players. Awesemo’s own Top Driver Tool has Kevin Harvick projected for extreme ownership, almost doubling the field in terms of the next high-priced driver. If there is any correlation between the betting public and the DFS public, then getting off Harvick is the sharp play today.
The nine different winners through 10 Trucks, Xfinity and Cup races have me a little hesitant to just name an outright winner. This young season is still sorting itself out. However, if looking for a favorite my eyes are turning away from the Fords to a Chevrolet. I really like the prospect of Chase Elliott (+900) coming back to a track he ran well at last season. Hidden in the box score of a driver who finished 26th is a driver who led 70 laps and was the leader following the end of both stages one and two.
Top Five Bets
In Saturday’s live show with Jason Floyd, I was asked late about Kyle Larson.
Because of everything I just listed, I do like Larson for DFS purposes. However, Larson has the seventh-highest odds (+1000) to win today. If we were fans of him last week then we should be encouraged to follow that trail for today. Alas, it’s not that outright I’m concerned with. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Larson’s top-five odds sit at +165. When you consider his stellar history, in a worse car, I can totally get behind a plus bet for Larson finishing fifth or better.
In this same train of thought, you can still get Alex Bowman at +275 for a top-five finish as well. Bowman’s last four starts at Las Vegas have gone fifth, 13th, sixth and 11th. In the 2020 edition of the Pennzoil 400, Bowman had the fifth-best average running position that day (eighth). I’m encouraged by how well those Hendrick cars ran last week, compounded with what they did in this race last year before the late caution threw everything for a spin-cycle.
The Latest Sports Betting Content from Stokastic Odds
- BetMGM North Carolina Pre-Registration: $200 in Bonus Bets Awaiting You When Sports Betting Launches
- Bet365 North Carolina Pre-Registration: Get $100 in Bonus Bets Before March 11
- DraftKings North Carolina Pre-Registration: Up to $300 in Bonus Bets for NC Launch on March 11!
- FanDuel North Carolina Pre-Registration: Grab $300 in Bonus Bets Between Now and March 11!
- Bet365 Louisiana Bonus Code: Bet $1, Get $365 in Bonus Bets!
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Race Props
Here is a list of interesting head-to-heads or props being offered by DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Chris Buescher (-134) vs. Bubba Wallace (+105) — best finishing position: Buescher’s worst finish at Las Vegas since 2018 is 18th meanwhile Wallace needed pit road strategy last Spring just to get out of the 20s. Plus, at least Buescher showed some speed last week and now returns to a track Ford has always been good at. Wallace might still be the same driver we saw in the No. 43, just with better equipment that he can’t use to its full potential.
- Top Toyota Car: Martin Truex Jr. (+125) — whether it’s Spring or late Summer, Truex continually does well and continues to be the most consistent thing about Joe Gibbs at this track.
- Number of drivers to finish on the lead lap: Over 18.5 — this is simply just following the trend, both races at Las Vegas in 2020 had 20-plus cars on the lead lap.
My final bet is a NASCAR/PGA parlay: Cole Custer to win the best finish in Group E (+240) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout top-five (+750). Combined these odds are +2790 and could turn $10 into $289. Custer’s mediocre group includes Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher. This is a group I can easily see Custer beating outright. Don’t forget, in a similar tire package at Kentucky, we saw Custer win last Summer.
As far as Bezuidenhout, Awesemo’s Jason Rouslin is expecting a harder day compared to Saturday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, so wants to bet on golfers with elite short games. That means firing up Bezuidenhout in DFS but it’s appealing to me for a golfer sitting tied in 11th at -6. Several golfers took advantage of yesterday’s favorable conditions. However, if the elements bite back then golfers like Keegan Bradley will fall back while Bezuidenhout surges.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Check out the AwesemoOdds home page for more sports betting content, including more NASCAR betting picks and predictions.