Identifying edges in the betting market can be tough, which is why OddsShopper by Awesemo.com is here to help. This article focuses on my two favorite NFL picks and prop bets for Monday Night Football and which sportsbook offers the best odds for each. Let’s right into it.
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NFL Odds + NFL Picks: Sunday Night Football Best Bets & Props
NFL Pick: Nick Foles UNDER 249.5 Passing Yards
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After last night’s offensive showcase from the Cardinals and Seahawks, which culminated in 71 combined points, we’re looking at a drastically different projected game script for tonight’s Bears – Rams matchup. Opening with a 47-point total that’s plummeted to 44.5, Vegas is predicting a clash between two elite defenses that should make yardage hard to come by for both offenses.
We’ve come to expect stifling defense from the Bears, a unit that has excelled on that side of the ball since their acquisition of outside linebacker Khalil Mack from the Raiders in 2018. But the Rams, led by first-year defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, have really surpassed expectations thus far in 2020. While Los Angeles remains somewhat gettable on the ground, giving up 109 rushing yards per game this season, the Rams have held their opposition to a sublime 216.3 yards per game through the air. That alone makes you scratch your head as to why Foles’ passing yards prop would be over 40 yards more at 249.5, especially for a quarterback averaging only 230 yards in three starts since taking over in Week 4.
Perhaps there’s some inflation on this prop due to the Bears being 6-point underdogs, which means a game script that could result in more passing plays when trying to come from behind. However, with no fewer than 39 attempts in each of his starts this season, it’s hard to imagine Foles sees significantly more passing work than normal. And with the help of NFL Next Gen Stats, it’s easy to see that despite the massive quantity of passing attempts, Foles rarely takes any downfield shots that could result in big plays without significant help from his receivers after the catch.
Speaking of his receivers, the Bears’ top pass-game option, Allen Robinson, will be spending the evening blanketed by elite cornerback Jalen Ramsey. That means the likes of Anthony Miller, Darnell Mooney and elder tight end Jimmy Graham would have to break out in order for Foles to surpass the 250-yard mark for the first time this season. Add in that the Bears offensive line will be coping with constant pressure from two-time defensive player of the year Aaron Donald all evening, and I anticipate a steady stream of checkdowns to running back David Montgomery in this one. While a dozen or so throws at the line of scrimmage might be the recipe to grind out a Bears win, it’s not going to get it done for Foles’ box score. I’ll be wagering one unit on the under.
NFL Pick: Tyler Higbee OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards
(UPDATE: Higbee INACTIVE tonight. Bet the OVER on Everett’s 19.5 Receiving Yards prop immediately.)
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One of my favorite sports betting pastimes is taking advantage of prop inaccuracies on players with the questionable tag. Too many people try to gauge injuries like they’re suddenly experts in sports medicine, deciding on some imaginary scale who will be limited and who won’t be. For instance, in last night’s Prop Report I discussed DeAndre Hopkins at length, and how you shouldn’t be scared off by his injury designation. His receiving prop was substantially too low, and we took advantage for an easy two units on the over. In other words, if a NFL player is healthy enough to be on the field in any capacity, assume it’s business as usual.
Now, Higbee isn’t in the same area code talent-wise as Hopkins. We’re also talking about a hand injury for Higbee as opposed to an ankle for Hopkins. But I don’t know what that means aside from what I hear and read from beat writers, so if Higbee is good to go, I’m assuming he’ll still see his normal workload and won’t be swayed by anything said to the contrary (especially if it’s Sean McVay that says it).
Plus, I believe Higbee to be an above-average pass catcher at the position, proven by his crazy hot streak at the end of the 2019 season with fellow tight end Gerald Everett sidelined. He’s no doubt been disappointing to this point of the season with only 18 catches on 21 targets through six games, averaging a haggard 37 yards per game. But even that subpar production is nearly 10 yards greater than we’d need to hit the over on 28.5 receiving yards. Add in that Higbee continues to run more routes at the position than Everett, and I’m happy to fire off a unit on Higbee so long as he’s active.
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