Identifying edges in the betting market can be tough. That’s why OddsShopper by Awesemo.com is here to help. This article focuses on my two favorite NFL picks and prop bets for Sunday Night Football and which sportsbook offers the best odds for each. Let’s get to it.
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NFL Odds + NFL Picks: Sunday Night Football Best Bets & Props
NFL Pick: DeAndre Hopkins OVER 75.5 Receiving Yards
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The NFL called a late audible to make the late-night hammer Seahawks – Cardinals instead of Buccaneers – Raiders. I’m certainly not complaining, as this NFC West matchup pits two high-octane offenses against two highly deficient defenses. That means fireworks, as evident by the hefty 54.5-point total.
And in order for there to be points, there needs to be production. Which is fine for our purposes because these two teams have some of the most condensed target shares in the NFL. And nobody is locked into their elite role more than Hopkins, the Houston acquisition who has changed the complexion of Kliff Klingsbury’s air raid offense instantly upon arrival. In fact, Hopkins leads the league heading into Week 7 with 601 receiving yards and 47 catches, so this 75.5 number is suspiciously low.
Perhaps sportsbooks are factoring in the ankle injury that has him listed questionable, but Hopkins keeps being active and keeps putting up numbers week-after-week. Seattle is also a noted pass-funnel at this point, playing a lot of zone coverage that favors the likes of Murray and Company. Obviously Hopkins is a point of emphasis for any defense every week, but I don’t see how you don’t smash the over in this spot in this game environment. I’m doubling up on this NFL prop with two units tonight, and I recommend you doing the same.
NFL Pick: Kenyan Drake OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards
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Betting on both the Cardinals passing and running attacks would appear uncorrelated, but I’m all for it when the numbers are right. With the help of OddsShopper, you can see above how you can pick up 4 free yards on Drake’s rushing prop by avoiding PointsBet’s inflated 63.5 number. As someone who’s been bit by a single yard on a few bets these past few weeks, I’m all for the extra help.
I discussed above how Seattle is a noted pass-funnel, but 59.5 is too low for a back in Drake that’s seen the vast majority of snaps at the position this season (over 70% snap share). As effective as Chase Edmonds has been in the passing game, Drake is out-touching him in the ground game with 105 carries to 24. As long as this game doesn’t get out of hand early, there should be plenty of opportunities for Drake to reach 60 yards on pure volume alone.
So, while I certainly don’t expect 164 yards like he ran for against the decrepit Cowboys squad last week, there will be ample opportunity for Drake to blow 59.5 rushing yards out of the water. One unit on the over should do.
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