Welcome to the Awesemo Expert Golf Betting Picks page for the 2021 Northern Trust Open. Awesemo’s golf betting experts have outlined their favorite PGA picks this week and located some of the best PGA betting odds and picks this week on BetMGM, PointsBet and more. We have loads of promo codes available if you are new to the world of sports betting.
PGA Odds & Expert Picks: The Northern Trust
In this new weekly article, Awesemo’s golf experts will give their favorite PGA betting picks, odds, and predictions of the week for the 2021 Northern Trust Open.
Ben Rasa’s Pick: Justin Thomas
Outright: 28-1 (PointsBet)
Thomas has been a pain point all season. He did win the Players Championship, but other than that, it has been a down year. That is mostly due to an ice-cold putter, which lost another five strokes at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude last time out. Although that is concerning and could hold him back again, the number is too appealing to pass up given how good Thomas is.
Even with the putting woes, Thomas is a pure ball striker whose irons can carry him. He gained six strokes on the approach last time out, and if he continues to do that, he is going to set himself up for a win if the putter flips. I will blindly back him at numbers like this, as he is a proven winner who is going to emerge from this slump sooner or later.
Geoff Ulrich’s Pick: Rory McIlroy (Outright) & K.H. Lee (Top 10)
Outright: 22-1 | Top 10: 17-1 (PointsBet)
Like many this week, I do not want to stray too far from the top of the board when betting outrights. McIlroy enters this week over 20-1 in the odds in most places. He has now gained over four strokes on approach alone in his last five U.S.-based starts and gained 12.4 strokes ball striking at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude. When his putter gets hot here, another win is almost certainly coming; McIlroy has three playoff wins to his credit since 2016. He looks underpriced here relative to both track record and his recent form.
There is lots of talent deep in this field too, so I found a longer top-10 bet in Lee. He won earlier in the season and looks to be heating up again. Lee finished sixth in Minnesota a few weeks back and gained seven strokes ball striking last week at the Wyndham (24th). If his putter heats up on the bentgrass greens, he will have a great shot at hitting these odds that seem to be discounting his recent results.
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Outright: 33-1 | Top 10: +300 (PointsBet)
With such a top-heavy field, putting together a betting card that consists solely of big-name players feels like the way to go. In fact, the longest play of interest right now is Scheffler at 33-1, a far cry from the long-shot ensembles of recent weeks.
Scheffler is a ball-striking machine, having now gained strokes tee to green in 15 consecutive tournaments. The chipping and putting can be sub-standard from time to time, but on the weeks when his flat stick spikes, he automatically makes the top 10s. After two consecutive poor performances on the greens, expect some positive regression in that department from a player of Scheffler’s caliber. Plus, after going fourth, 20th and fifth in last year’s FedEx Cup Playoffs, Scheffler should feel more comfortable than ever knowing he can compete — and potentially win — on these big stages.
Jason Rouslin’s Pick: Rory McIlroy
Top European: 5-1 (BetMGM)
Additional Bet: Dustin Johnson & Collin Morikawa Top 5 +1600
Geoff has done an excellent job at outlining just how good McIlroy’s ball-striking stats have been lately, his putter just has not followed. This week, though, that will not be able to shine quite as much say as it would at East Lake, and he will fall short of Jordan Spieth, whose strengths should be highlighted here. Given Rahm’s short odds throughout the board, this bet is a good way to pin McIlroy up against him while getting a big jump in the odds. For reference, McIlroy is +105 versus Rahm this week in a lot of places, but betting it this way earns +500.
BetMGM has risen their stakes and added a ton of fun ways to bet on golf. For example, bettors can play Jon Rahm Round 1 specials that include: Making an eagle, five or more birdies and so much more. The additional bet I have selected is a “placement/finish special” featuring Johnson and Morikawa. Both golfers have shown upside in the last month, with Johnson’s play continuing to get better. This is a great way to tail that while also betting on Morikawa’s irons to return to form.
Max Smotritskiy’s Pick: Paul Casey (Outright) & Mackenzie Hughes (Top 20)
Outright: 33-1 | Top-20: +500 (BetMGM)
Historically it is very tough for someone to come out of nowhere to win in the FedEx cup playoffs. These fields are loaded, and the cream rises to the top. However, at 33-1 we can find a golfer that is top five in this field in ball striking. Casey’s Achilles heel has always been putting. However, his best surface is fast bentgrass, which he will see this week. As long as he is average with the putter, he should be right there to claim a win on Sunday.
When Hughes has any semblance of a tee-to-green game, he is good enough on the greens to get into the top 20 of the field a remarkable percentage of the time. It is not much, but he has now gained strokes on approach in four of his last five events and has one top-10 and two top-20s in that stretch, narrowly missing another top-20 at the Wyndham last week. Like Casey, bentgrass greens are Hughes’ best surface, and as long as his tee-to-green game remains intact, Hughes should be able to secure a top-20 this week.
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