Welcome to The Prop Report presented by No House Advantage. For those new to the site, NHA is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) app that offers prop-based contests across multiple sports. Simply pick your five favorite player props for a given slate, rank them eight (most confident) through one (least confident) and receive those points for each prop that hits. The best part? Instead of facing a house advantage on props like you would with your favorite NFL betting picks on a sportsbook, No House Advantage has purely peer-to-peer contests with big cash prizes. Sign up here or download the app from the App Store to get started. I’m going to give you my three favorite NFL player prop bets to utilize in your highest confidence slots for Saturday, the first leg of Wildcard Weekend.
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The Prop Report Presented By No House Advantage | Saturday NFL Picks
NFL Pick No. 1: Phillip Rivers OVER 0.5 Interceptions
Welcome to Wildcard Weekend, where the NFL has gifted us with two more games than normal due to its modified playoff format. That means we’ve got six total matchups to break down in the prop market for both Saturday and Sunday. One of the best ways to get exposure to said props is over at No House Advantage, which is offering a $5 and $20 contests for Saturday’s three-game slate.
The main strategy we’ve been implying in the top confidence slots on NHA is jamming in overs on interception props. And today’s best option on the board is none other than Phillip Rivers, the 39-year-old Colts quarterback playing in his 12th career playoff game. In this road matchup versus the Buffalo Bills, Rivers is currently listed as a -175 favorite at the DraftKings Sportsbook to throw a pick. While he’s had fewer passing attempts of late with the emergence of Jonathan Taylor in the running game, Rivers is still coming off consecutive games throwing an interception, bringing his total to 11 on the season in 16 total games. That makes this an easy play on the over.
NFL Pick No. 2: Alex Smith OVER 175.5 Passing Yards if Active (NOTE: ALEX SMITH IS INACTIVE. REMOVE HIM FROM YOUR LINEUPS!)
The story of Saturday’s afternoon matchups is uncertainty, as both Jared Goff and Alex Smith enter their respective games with questionable tags. Since Goff and his throwing hand injury aren’t listed on NHA, I’m focusing in on the Washington Football Team’s Smith and his calf injury as a play. Should the automatic Comeback Player of the Year be good to go, he’ll enter this home matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as an eight-point under dog in what should be the most defensive-centric game of the weekend.
However, I’m actually bullish on the over for Smith’s passing yards in this spot. The Bucs defense has some crazy splits, ranking first in the league against the run but 23rd against the pass, giving up 269.4 yards through the air per game. So as long as he’s starting, Smith should be able to at least meet his season average of 197.8 passing yards per game, which is more than enough to surpass this 175.5 number. In fact, Alex Baker has Smith projected for just north of 250 yards, so this prop is a definite play on the over should Smith give it a go.
NFL Pick No. 3: Ronald Jones II OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards
One of my favorite non-QB plays comes courtesy of Bucs running back Ronald Jones. The number one in Tampa returned in Week 17 after a three-week absence due to a finger injury as well as the COVID-19 list. He took 12 carries for 72 yards, but even more encouraging was the fact he saw 53% of the snaps in the backfield right away. In a do-or-die playoff game, I definitely see that number going up, which means plenty of opportunity for Jones to run on this Washington Football Team defense that is only gettable on the ground. Ranking first in the NFL against the pass but only 13th defending the run, expect Jones to bust through the over on this 60.5 number today.
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