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The Prop Report: Top NFL Prop Bets using OddsShopper for Monday Night Football

Eric Lindquist

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Week 10 fantasy football start 'em sit 'em

Identifying edges in the betting market can be tough, which is why OddsShopper by Awesemo.com is here to help. This article focuses on my two favorite NFL prop bets for Monday Night Football and which sportsbook offers the best odds for each. Let’s get right into it.


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NFL Odds + NFL Picks: Monday Night Football Best Bets & Props

NFL Prop #1: Cam Newton OVER 207.5 Passing Yards

*Click on the image below to go to OddsShopper*

Good thing sports betting exists, because I can’t think of much else that would make this evening’s New England Patriots (2-5) and New York Jets (0-8) matchup remotely watchable. Still, money doesn’t discriminate between the good games and the bad ones, so let’s take advantage of a solid opportunity to cash in on the over of 207.5 passing yards for Cam Newton. I’m 5-1 on passing props this season, and ironically all but one has been a play on the over. I’m not sure if there’s a trend there or not, but whenever there are noticeable inefficiencies between our projections and a listed prop, I don’t care if it’s an over or an under: I’m betting it.

Which brings me back to Cam Newton. This prop sits nearly 20 yards below Awesemo’s projections, a large discrepancy for an already-low passing yardage total. I can certainly understand how Vegas landed on this number; in Cam Newton’s six starts this season, he’s failed to eclipse the 200-yard mark five times. If we remove his outlier performance from Week 2 against the Seahawks, his passing play looks even worse at an astonishingly-low 149.2 passing yards per game and fewer than 30 passing attempts in each.

So what sparks my optimistic outlook for Cam tonight? It’s easy: J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets! Nothing does wonders for the confidence of a quarterback quite like lining up across from a AAA football team. Currently coughing up 406.5 yards per game to opposing offenses with 290.4 of those coming through the air, this is as good as a spot gets to rack up yards. While Newton’s top two targets in Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry are out for tonight, I don’t think it matters all that much considering the Jets have failed to hold a single team under 200 yards passing through eight weeks. Expect Cam to make that nine tonight and fire a unit on the over.

NFL Prop #2: Rex Burkhead OVER 23.5 Rushing Yards

*Click on the image below to go to OddsShopper*

This is the important part: if Sony Michel is activated off the injured reserve before tonight’s game, do not play this prop. Wait to see the active/inactive list 90 minutes before kickoff before firing this bet. But assuming Michel is still out, I like the play on Burkhead’s over 23.5 rushing yards. As bad as the Jets defense is in the passing game, they are somehow equally-abhorrent against the run, hemorrhaging 116.1 yards per game to their opposition on the ground. Burkhead is part of a three-man committee, but he’s seen the most snaps at the position for New England this season.

Damien Harris also enters tonight as questionable, although I’d find it surprising for him to miss after practicing all week. If he’s limited in any fashion, it would mean more carries for Burkhead since James White functions almost exclusively as a receiving back. The Patriots are listed as 10-point favorites on the road, so a run-heavy game script is more likely than not. With only 23.5 rushing yards to exceed this prop – and multiple routes for Burkhead to see an increased workload – I’m taking the over for one unit.


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