Identifying edges in the NFL betting market can be tough, which is why OddsShopper by Awesemo.com is here to help. This article focuses on my two favorite NFL prop bets for Sunday Night Football between the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots, and which sportsbook offers the best odds for each. Let’s get right into it.
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NFL Prop Bets: Week 10 Sunday Night Football | Ravens vs. Patriots
NFL Prop Bet No. 1: Lamar Jackson OVER 195.5 Passing Yards
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The unconscious heater I’ve been riding for the past two weeks came to a screeching halt Thursday night at the hands of the Titans’ abysmal second half performance. I feel a personal responsibility to come up with the goods now, so let’s get to it and cap off this frenetic day of football in style. The Ravens (6-2) arrive in Foxboro as 6.5-point favorites to face the Patriots (3-5) in a game with a low 44-point total. But wouldn’t you know it: I’m on the over of another quarterback passing prop anyways, this time riding the not-so-hot hand of Lamar Jackson.
The 2019 NFL MVP has been shockingly bad thus far in 2020. Coming off a year of exceptional growth as a thrower, nearly every passing rate has regressed to marks near the bottom of the league. He averages a paltry 189.1 passing yards per game, hasn’t eclipsed 210 yards through the air since Week 1, and hasn’t attempted more than 30 passes in the Ravens’ past three. If it weren’t for his outrageous rushing capabilities, you could argue he’s holding this Ravens team back.
So why am I so interested in subjecting myself to the over on a quarterback who can’t find his footing? Well for one, the Patriots just made Joe Flacco look like Joe Montana in primetime this past Monday night, so that’s fun. Surrendering 262 passing yards to the Jets is like giving up 400-plus to a run-of-the-mill NFL team and doesn’t bode well for them going forward. So with the Ravens on the road tonight and a game that’s projected to stay relatively close, there could be a slight uptick to Jackson’s passing volume against a team giving up 232.3 passing yards per game.
I’m also not terribly narrative-driven in my process, but Jackson was embarrassed against the Chiefs in the Ravens’ last primetime outing. I expect him to atone for that tonight (and then some) against a Patriots team that’s short on talent playing on a short week. One unit on the over here for the reigning MVP.
NFL Prop Bet No. 2: J.K. Dobbins UNDER 37.5 Rushing Yards
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Vegas is aware that Mark Ingram is scheduled to be back for tonight, right? Well in the event that they don’t know, run — don’t walk — to take advantage of the under on this J.K. Dobbins prop.
There’s not a whole lot to say here besides Dobbins will become the de facto number three rushing option with Ingram’s return. He never saw double-digit carries in a game before Ingram’s absence the past two games. And even if he were to miraculously find that type of volume, his measly 30 rushing yards on 12 carries against the Colts in Week 9 show what kind of downside he has. I’ll admit he does average 5.7 yards per carry, but that’s bolstered heavily by two fluke plays in two specific games he saw a combined three carries (Week 2 vs. Houston, Week 5 vs. Cincinnati). So don’t overthink this: if Ingram is in, hammer the under on Dobbins’ rushing output.
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