Identifying edges in the NFL betting market can be tough, which is why OddsShopper by Awesemo.com is here to help. This article focuses on my favorite Sunday Night Football prop bets for tonight’s game between the Chiefs and the Raiders, and which sportsbook offers the best odds for each. Let’s get right into the NFL prop bets.
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Week 11 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets | Chiefs vs. Raiders
NFL Prop Bet No. 1: Derek Carr UNDER 267.5 Passing Yards
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As we head to the latter stages of this NFL season, primetime games tend to get better and better in terms of stakes and matchup. Tonight’s Chiefs and Raiders matchup is no exception, as Andy Reid’s squad heads to Vegas attempting to avenge their lone loss of the season versus John Gruden and Company. That Week 5 40-32 shootout was actually much more lopsided than it appeared, as the Raiders went wire-to-wire against the defending Super Bowl champions. Derek Carr went ballistic in that affair, throwing for 347 yards and three scores en route to the upset. While no one expects that kind of performance to repeat itself, I want to take it a step further and short Carr’s passing production this evening.
First off, the Raiders enter tonight as only 7-point underdogs in a spot they should be able to move the ball on the ground. For the season, the Chiefs are giving up a hefty 138.4 rushing yards per game with a slight uptick to 150.5 in their four road games. With a Raiders ground game that enters Week 11 ranked seventh in the NFL at 139.2 rushing yards per game, expect a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker to carry the load for the Las Vegas offense tonight. Unfortunately, none of the Raiders running backs have mispriced props, so betting on their production is best achieved by betting against Carr.
Secondly, despite the number of torrid starts Kansas City has gotten off to this season, opposing teams still don’t rack up much passing production against them. Ranked fifth in the NFL allowing only 225.6 yards per game through the air, the Chiefs boast an elite pass protection unit. Add in that Carr only averages 239.6 passing yards per game which includes three consecutive outings failing to exceed even 165 passing yards, this 262.5 number is way too high. As you can see with the help of OddsShopper above, be sure to avoid William Hill to get the better number and avoid BetMGM to get the better price.
NFL Prop Bet No. 2: Bryan Edwards UNDER 10.5 Receiving Yards
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The boss man Alex Baker has been crushing the prop game for months now. From tailing his plays on the Live Before Lock shows and his personal Twitter account (@AwesemoDFS), one of his strategies I’ve tried to incorporate in my own play is betting against players you don’t think will see much opportunity. There’s more odds offered for lesser-known players than you’d think, and I believe we have a prime example of that in Las Vegas rookie Bryan Edwards tonight.
Edwards is a 6-foot-3 wide receiver out of South Carolina who returned to action in Week 10. After missing over a month with a foot and ankle injury, he saw a mere 28% snap share and only one target. Given, he turned that target into a 16-yard reception which would be awful tonight, but I’m happy to bet against a one-play wonder out of him in this spot. Nelson Agholor has emerged unexpectedly as the Raiders number one receiver, which should continue to cut into Edwards’ playing time substantially. Plus, wagering against a single play from a single player is one of the best sweats you can get. Join in me in going half a unit, and let’s enjoy the ride together.
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