Identifying edges in the betting market can be tough, which is why OddsShopper by Awesemo.com is here to help. This article focuses on my favorite NFL bets for Sunday’s matchup between the Tennessee Titans and the Cincinnati Bengals, and which sportsbook offers the best odds for each. Let’s dive right in.
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- State: Tennessee
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[PUMPKIN]
NFL Odds + NFL Picks: Tennessee Titans Best Bets & Props
NFL Prop: Derrick Henry OVER 104.5 Rushing Yards
*Click on the image below to go to OddsShopper*
Residents of Tennessee, rejoice! As of this Sunday, November 1st, sports betting is officially open for business in your state, and we’re celebrating with a Titans-themed article to get you started. With the help of OddsShopper and Awesemo’s projections, our goal is to identify one or two plays or props per day to take advantage of. And it just so happens my favorite prop to bet from the Titans game is none other than the pride of Tennessee football himself, Derrick Henry.
There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and King Henry will go completely nuts in the second half of the NFL season. Coming off a Week 7 loss to a stout Steelers defense that held Henry in check for only 75 yards rushing, Week 8 poses substantially less resistance in a beleaguered Bengals unit yielding 133.7 yards per game on the ground. Even with a bye week, Henry leads the NFL with 663 rushing yards (110.5 per game) and now faces arguably his softest matchup of the season. He currently sports a 68% snap share over rookie back Jeremy McNichols, who’s seen just 17 carries all season. In other words, he’s the definition of a workhorse back, and that shows no signs of stopping in Cincinnati.
The only concern here would be the potential for a blowout where Ryan Tannehill has his way in the passing game and Henry doesn’t need to be fully-unleashed. But the Titans enter Sunday as mild 6.5-point favorites on the road, so Vegas doesn’t seem to be all that worried. Additionally, the forecast predicts 15-20 mile per hour winds with gusts up to 30. That kind of weather lends itself to an even more Henry-centric game script than normal with potential 30-touch upside. At 4.6 yards per carry on the season, that means Henry could blow this 104.5 number out of the water on pure volume alone. Make sure you sign up for a BetMGM account (you can do so right here) so you can put a unit on the King erupting in this spot.
NFL Pick: Titans -6.5
One of my favorite features of OddsShopper opens by clicking the ‘SEE MATCHUP’ tab next to any listed game, as shown below:
This leads to one of the most informative pages in the entire betting industry with breakdowns of key team stats, weather information, public betting trends and more:
I referenced the weather when discussing the Derrick Henry prop, but let’s discuss it more here. If you scroll down a bit further, there’s a graph labeled ‘total’, or the projected number of points to be scored in the game:
After opening at 55.5, the total has been bet all the way down to 51, mostly because of the forecast. While that’s not the bet I’m interested in at this point, I believe this drop is a good sign for the Titans, a team that can rely on Derrick Henry to get easy yards on the ground and not have to sling it around in the wind. The Bengals, however, are a pass-heavy attack led by rookie Joe Burrow, and will have issues moving the ball if they’re not throwing it, especially without starting running back Joe Mixon. In sustained winds into the 20’s and gusts into the 30’s, I see the Titans with the clear advantage in these conditions.
Now that I’ve established I’m on the Titans, let’s talk price shopping. Click the link below to go directly to the OddsShopper page:
If you look in the Best Bets column, you can see DraftKings’ -6.5 line at -112 is the most advantageous line offered on the market. Hence, I would definitely make my Titans bet with them, since I’m getting half a point off a key number for only two dollars more. In the long run, shopping for odds can make the difference between a profitable year and a losing one. Luckily, OddsShopper can do all the work for you; simply sign up for the books available in your area and bet the advantageous lines.
BetMGM Sportsbook DEPOSIT MATCH up to $500
FREE OFFER: You can sign up now and get an instant DEPOSIT MATCH up to $500 when Tennessee sports betting launches on Sunday morning.
- New users claim now: BetMGM
- State: Tennessee
Whether you want to deposit $25 or $500, your deposit will be matched instantly. You’re basically doubling your money.
Last thing: every state could have slightly different lines based on their gaming regulation. Be sure to click on the states tab in the morning to display the best lines available in your area and which book to find them at.
Welcome to the world of sports betting, Tennessee, and Go Titans!
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