The British Open Championship is just a week away. The event takes place around 13 different sites located in Ireland and Great Britain, and many of the world’s best gear up for the links-style event by flying over to the Atlantic a week before. In fact, 11 of the world’s top 30 players are here to compete as compared to just two at the John Deere Classic on the PGA Tour. Let’s get into a brief summary of the course for this week’s Scottish Open and then analyze some of my favorite PGA odds, expert picks and best golf bets this week.
The Course: The Renaissance Club — North Berwick, Scotland
The Renaissance Club provides a true links test. Located right next to Muirfield Links, an Open Championship venue, the Renaissance Club features many holes that are exposed by the coastline and offer just a few holes not impacted by it. A par 71 measuring 7,300 yards, its unique setup includes four par 5’s and five par 3’s. That should give a slight edge to distance here, but given that the course is not overly long, it will be about how the golfer manages the conditions that always follow in this part of the world. Having been the host to the event in each of the last two years, it is no secret the course’s main defense is the elements. 2019 brought good weather and low scores, with Bernd Wiesberger winning the event at -22. Last year, on the same course, Aaron Rai shot -11 and won the event in a playoff against Tommy Fleetwood.
PGA Odds & Expert Picks This Week: Scottish Open
The Favorite Pick: Justin Thomas — Outright 18-1 (PointsBet)
It is rare got Thomas to go over to the European Tour and have course history. But that is the case at the Renaissance Club, as Thomas made the trip in 2019 and came in ninth. One thing he has not quite mastered in his game yet is the ability to play on wind and links courses. With no top-10s and two missed cuts in four trips at the Open Championship, Thomas will try to fine-tune his links game in search for his first top-10. While his game is certainly not in the best form, having the same PGA odds to win as Tyrrell Hatton seems a little too good to pass up.
Mid-Range Pick: Robert MacIntyre — Outright 40-1 (BetMGM)
MacIntyre has had a big year that includes a tie for 12th at his first Masters. That earned him a spot in next year’s event. He has also added three other top-10s and just one missed cut on the entire season. His odds to win, however, seem a bit short, so the top-five, top-10 and top-20 provide value through his consistency.
Value Pick: Aaron Rai — Outright 80-1 (BetMGM)
Rai, the defending champion of the event, has just started to find form again after his impressive run in the latter part of last year. The run included this victory and a few other high finishes., but he followed that up with a streak of bad golf that has covered most of this year. That includes six missed cuts and no top-10s. However, now it seems like he is getting his groove back, finishing 28th and 12th in the last two events. Given that and his good history here, each-ways and a sprinkle on the outright are solid plays. Last year the field was not nearly as stacked as it is this year, which is something else to consider.
Longshot Pick: Wilco Nienaber — Outright 150-1 (BetMGM)
After his brief stop on the PGA Tour where he wowed the crowd with his length at the Palmetto Championship, Nienaber has not found as much success in his last two starts. Granted, one start was the U.S. Open, where he made the cut in his first-ever major, things looked bleak last week at the Irish Open. But now he heads to a par-71 course with four par 5’s, which might be a little better suited for him. Since his PGA odds are north of 150-1 again and he won just seven starts ago, this sets up perfectly to take a shot on Nienaber again.
Other Notables
Ian Poulter: 40-1 Outright
Thomas Pieters: 66-1 Outright
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