While a week-long affair of a stars-and-scrubs approach has swept the NBA daily fantasy industry into a pre-lock frenzy, the betting market remains firm within their player prop pricing. Thursday provides us a six-game slate in the Association, which takes us to OddsShopper to seek out best values among NBA odds. Here we will cross-reference player stats, rotations, matchups, recent team trends and injuries to solidify our NBA betting picks. This evening we’ll focus on Tobias Harris and Tyrese Haliburton.
Thursday’s NBA Betting Picks & Player Prop Bets | 2/25
Tobias Harris, OVER 4.5 AST (+132, SugarHouse & DraftKings Sportsbook)
Looking at OddsShopper, Tobias Harris has a player prop line of 4.5 assists and significant +132 odds on the over. Seeing as how he has been playing these days, we may have found some of the best NBA odds on the day.
Averaging 2.1 assists per game for his career, Harris has seen his assist totals improve this season, averaging 3.4 assists per game in 2021 coupled with a 15.8% assist rate. Harris is also logging slightly above his playing time from last season, registering 34.7 minutes per game this season (up from 34.3). Plus, his latest 10-game span has provided an uptick in assists. Over that stretch, Harris has averaged 4.8 assists per game with a convincing 21.5% assist rate. Harris’ assist totals from these 10 games are: 5, 6, 1, 5, 5, 2, 5, 7, 7 and 5.
Although the Mavericks have allowed 23.4 assists per game this season (eighth fewest), Dallas also has a weakness against power forwards and has allowed 4.6 assists per game against the position (sixth most). Provided the consistency we’ve seen through this month, along with the added motivation of being shorted an All-Star spot, Harris awarding 132% on your investment for such a feasible assist total is a no-brainer.
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Tyrese Haliburton, OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
To say that the Kings have been struggling would be an understatement, with an eight-game losing streak seemingly impossible to shake off. But looking at silver linings, rookie Tyrese Haliburton has been shining bright while coming off the bench for the Kings and shooting plentifully from beyond the arc. He has a player prop of 2.5 3-pointers made and +110 on the over. Considering his minutes and shot volume from long range over the past month or so, there’s value to be gained on this prop.
With the Kings backup shooting guard averaging 30.0 minutes and 13.1 points per game, Haliburton’s long-range prowess paves promise, as he’s shooting 44.2% from 3-point territory in his rookie season. Seeing as 54.5% of Haliburton’s scoring produced comes from 3-point land, three 3’s seems to be well in range while awarding 10% on your wager. Over half of Haliburton’s shots are also coming from deep, and he is playing more 30 minutes per game as of late, so our chances appear padded with volume in our favor.
Squaring off in Madison Square Garden with a surprisingly decent Knicks roster, Sacramento may find themselves playing from behind in the first half. That should bode well for Haliburton’s shot selection. Although New York is allowing 12.1 3-pointers made by opponent teams per game (10th best) along with a league-best 30% 3-point percentage allowed to opposing shooting guards, the Knicks have played 20 of their 32 games against a soft Eastern Conference and have lost once already to the Kings. As an aside, Haliburton was cold from 3-point range in that game (2-for-7 in 31 minutes). The volume was present for Haliburton the first time out, and I’ll chase it here among NBA betting picks for Thursday.
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