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The 7 Most Profitable NBA Player Props Today: Dorian Finney-Smith & Nicolas Claxton | 12/27/21




This daily NBA betting article will examine the best betting picks and NBA player props each day. Using the Awesemo NBA Player Props Betting against Tool, bettors can maximize their profits and see the best bets with the highest expected return on investment NBA betting today. Also, bettorchriss can use OddsShopper to find which sportsbooks are offering the best prices for these prop bets. The following are the seven best bets for tonight’s seven-game docket.

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Dorian Finney-Smith Over 10.5 Points

Finney-Smith is expected to return to the court tonight after missing Dallas’ Christmas Day game against Utah due to an undisclosed illness. The Mavericks are still dealing with many COVID issues as seven players are expected to remain out, including Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway, Trey Burke, and Maxi Kleber.

Finney-Smith played well before missing the Mavericks’ last game, as he scored in double-figures in a season-high five straight games. He averaged 15.6 points and 2.4 3-pointers while shooting 47.5% from the field and 35.3% from beyond the arc during this stretch. In addition, Finney-Smith has seen a slight uptick in usage from his season average of 13.6% to 16.6% over his last five outings.

Portland is also slated to be short-handed, particularly in the frontcourt, with Cody Zeller, Jusuf Nurkic, Robert Covington and Trendon Watfield sidelined due to health and safety protocols. Ben McLemore and C.J. McCollum will also not play tonight, while Damian Lillard (personal) is questionable. This year the Trail Blazers allow 20.3 points and 2.4 3-pointers on 44.1% shooting from the field to opposing power forwards. Finney-Smith is projected for 12 points. OddsShopper gives the over a 63% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 24%.

Nicolas Claxton Over 6.5 Rebounds

Claxton is inconsistent as a rebounder, as he is only grabbing 12.5% of all available rebounds this year. Plus, James Johnson, Paul Millsap and Blake Griffin are all available and could take minutes away from him. However, Claxton is a ball of energy and can be an excellent rebounder due to his extreme athleticism. This prop has plus-money odds at +115, which makes the bet all that more intriguing. Claxton is projected for 9.30 rebounds tonight against the Clippers.

Claxton has grabbed at least seven rebounds in four of his 12 appearances, and he averages 9.5 rebounds per 40 minutes. Moreover, the Clippers have permitted opposing centers to grab 16 rebounds a game over the last 10 outings, with Nikola Jokic hauling down 22 boards on Sunday night. Los Angeles will be without Paul George, although Marcus Morris could be back in action, as he has cleared COVID protocols. OddsShopper gives the over an 84% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 81%.

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Jalen Brunson Over 3.5 Rebounds

Brunson has been playing out of this world over the last six games, and he has a pretty good matchup against the Blazers. Brunson has averaged 20.2 points, 7.5 assists and 3.7 rebounds over the previous six games. He is projected for 4.95 rebounds tonight, as the Trail Blazers will likely be missing several key players, and they have permitted opposing point guards to grab nearly six rebounds over the last 10 games. OddsShopper gives the over a 73% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 24%.

Royce O’Neale Under 5.5 Rebounds

This prop just seems too high for someone who has rebounded like O’Neale has this year. O’Neale is grabbing just 8.8% of all available rebounds thus far and is averaging a career-low 6.5 rebounds per 40 minutes. He has failed to bring in at least six rebounds in six of his last seven games, including finishing with five rebounds in 29 minutes against San Antonio on Dec. 17. O’Neale is projected for five rebounds tonight. OddsShopper gives the under a 68% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 18%.

Jordan Clarkson Under 4.5 Rebounds

Clarkson has been rebounding the ball on a reasonably consistent basis lately, and he grabbed a season-high eight against Dallas on Christmas Day. While Donovan Mitchell (COVID) is out for tonight’s game, and the Spurs have not done a great job at keeping opposing backcourt off the backboard this year, this prop has some value. Clarkson is projected for 3.67 rebounds. OddsShopper gives the under a 70% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 17%.

Joe Ingles Under 5.5 Assists

Ingles has been entirely too inconsistent this year to not take the under. Ingles will likely start at shooting guard with Mitchell being ruled out, but he averages just 3.3 assists in the six games he has started this year. Earlier this season he doled out four assists over 25 minutes in the game against the Spurs. Ingles is projected for 4.4 assists tonight. OddsShopper gives the over a 74% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 41%.

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James Harden Under 11.5 Assists

This prop is just a tad too high. Harden will have the ball in his hand as much as he wants with Kevin Durant once again out due to COVID. As a result, Harden will be counted on to score a little more than usual once again, and Patty Mills will not toss in 34 points like on Christmas Day. He has seven games with at least 12 assists this year. However, none has come without Durant on the court. Harden is projected for 9.47 assists tonight. OddsShopper gives the under a 79% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 35%.

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