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Most Profitable NBA Playoff Bets For Friday 5/13/22




Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs has certainly been interesting. The conference semifinals have provided a little bit of everything, from exciting finishes to several blowouts and a few surprises, and some enormous individual performances. Of the 22 games this round, only five games have been decided by five or fewer points, while just 10 of the contests have been finished with a single-digit deficit. Most of the close games involve the four teams playing tonight, which makes it one of the best days for NBA bets.

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The big question heading into tonight is will the Bucks and Warriors join the Heat in the conference final, thus avoiding the dreaded Game 7. Both Milwaukee and Golden State are at home and lead 3-2 in their respective series over Boston and Memphis. Homecourt has proved to be super advantageous as the home team owns a 19-5 record in this round. Also, the team that is up in the series heading into Game 6 is 5-1 this postseason, with Phoenix the only team to fail to earn a victory. The Mavericks clobbered the Suns 113-86 last night to force the playoffs’ first Game 7.

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Best NBA Bets and Player Props

Bucks vs. Celtics Prediction

Milwaukee will look to close out the series tonight with tip-off slated for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Bucks stole Game 6 from the Celtics on Wednesday as they came away with a 110-107 victory. In a reversal of fortune, the Bucks earned the victory with a dominant fourth quarter by outscoring the Celtics by 33-21. The Celtics had outscored the Bucks by 26 in the previous two games. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Pat Connaughton led the comeback with eight points apiece in the final stanza.

Expect another tight, hard-fought game. For the Bucks to win tonight, they need to dig in defensively, as they allowed the Celtics to shoot over 51% from the field in Game 6. Milwaukee did hold Boston to just 10 3-pointers at a 32% clip in the last game. The Celtics have been the better team offensively, while the Bucks have been better defensively throughout the playoffs. However, that has not been the case in this series, as the Celtics have been the better team on both ends of the floor. The Bucks do have the advantage in turnovers and rebounding.

Boston averages 104.4 points on 43.6% shooting from the field to go along with 14.2 3’s a game at a 36.6% clip for the series. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford have carried the Celtics offensively.  Meanwhile, Milwaukee is averaging 101.4 points and 9.2 3-pointers. The Bucks have recorded a shooting slash line of .424/.324/.752. Antetokounmpo and Holiday have carried the team offensively.

While homecourt advantage has not held true in this series, the Bucks have been very good at home all season long. Plus, the Celtics do not have an answer for Antetokounmpo though the same good is said about the Bucks for Tatum. Therefore, the difference in who wins could be the production of each team’s bench. The Bucks are a little deeper than the Celtics, especially if Robert Williams (knee) cannot go for the third straight game.  Each squad’s bench is producing 23 points a game even though the Bucks’ reserves are shooting the ball a little better. The Celtics’ reserves own a plus-2.3 plus/minutes rating compared to a minus 0.6 for the Bucks.

OddsShopper gives Milwaukee a 54% chance of winning the game. The key for the Bucks will be to control the boards and the paint, win the rebound battle and defend the 3-point line.

If you have any reservations about riding with the Bucks, BetMGM is giving away FREE money! All you have to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the Bucks or Celtics hit just one 3-pointer tonight.

Best NBA Bets Today: Bucks Moneyline (-125) Over Celtics

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Warriors vs. Grizzlies Prop Bet

Expect the Warriors to come on tonight with a chip on their shoulder after getting humiliated in Game 5. The Warriors came out flat and they were never able to recover. Do not expect that to happen again.

Golden State is home, where they are one of the best teams in the league, and Stephen Curry usually comes out firing following a poor performance. Curry finished with 14 points in 25 minutes on Wednesday though the Warriors were outscored by 37 points when he was on the floor. The Warriors committed 22 turnovers for the game.

There is no doubt that the Warriors are the better team here, especially with Ja Morant remaining out. While Golden State could roll here, the Grizzlies have been pretty good without Morant all season long. So with the Warriors at -380 on the money line, bettors should look elsewhere to place their money.

While it would not be surprising that Golden State got off to a fast start, the better bets are to take the Warriors to win the second or third quarter. Before Wednesday, the Warriors had dominated the third quarter in the series before Game 5 when they were outscored 42-17. Still, the Warriors have won three-of-five third quarters in the series and they have been outscored by just three total points.

Golden State is 6-4 against the spread in the third quarter during the playoffs as they are producing 29.3 points for the period on 47.3% shooting from the field and 43.8% from beyond the arc. The Warriors allow 29.1 points on 45.5% and 39.1% from long distance. Meanwhile, Memphis is just 3-8 against the spread in this frame during the playoffs. The Grizzlies average 28.1 points on 44.4% shooting from the field and 33.7% from the 3-point line during the third quarter. The Grizzlies have had problems in the third quarter defensively as they are allowing their opponents to shoot 47.5% from the field and 44.4% from beyond the arc.

Best NBA Bet Today: Warriors Spread (-2.5) Third Quarter Over Grizzlies

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Other Top Bets & Prop Picks For Tonight

  • Warriors vs. Grizzlies Under 218.5 Points
  • Klay Thompson Over 3.5 Rebounds

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