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Most Profitable NBA Round 2 Playoff Bets For Monday 5/9/22




Best NBA player props today free expert NBA betting picks and predictions Marcus Smart

Being at home has certainly had its advantages for NBA teams this postseason. The Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks took advantage of being in front of their fans this weekend, with each squad winning both their games to even up their respective series. This begs the question, can the Milwaukee Bucks and Golden State Warriors follow suit tonight? Both the Bucks and Warriors took advantage of homecourt on Saturday to take a 2-1 lead in their series. The home team has won 36-of-57 games during the 2022 playoffs, including posting a 14-2 record in the second round.

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This daily NBA article will examine the best betting picks and NBA player prop bets today. With OddsShopper, bettors can maximize their profits and see the best chances with the highest expected return on investment. OddsShopper can find which sportsbooks offer the best prices for these prop bets. The following are the four best NBA bets for May 9.

Best NBA Bets and Player Props Today

Bucks Moneyline (-115) Over Celtics

The major question heading into Game 4 is, can the Celtics once again limit the effectiveness of Giannis Antetokounmpo? Antetokounmpo went off for 42 points on 16-of-30 shooting to go along with 12 rebounds and eight assists as the Bucks held off the Celtics 103-101 on Saturday. Before Game 3, Giannis was shooting under 40% from the field in the series, though he did record a triple-double in Game 1.

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Antetokounmpo loves to perform at Fiserv Arena, where he averages over 31 points while shooting 56% from the field and has thrived against Boston throughout his career. He has also come up huge in big games, scoring 20 or more points in 57-of-72 career playoff games while recording 46 double-doubles and two triple-doubles.

Milwaukee has been excellent on defense this entire postseason. The Bucks are holding the Celtics to just 39% shooting from the field and are forcing 15.3 turnovers a game. They also did a much better job defending the 3-point line in Game 3. The Bucks defense has made things particularly difficult for Jayson Tatum in the series, and they have kept the Celtics guards pretty much in check, except for Jaylen Brown. Al Horford‘s, Grant Williamsand Robert Williams’ work on the offensive glass and their ability to stretch the floor has kept the Celtics afloat in the series.

OddsShopper gives the Bucks a 53% chance of winning the game. Milwaukee is deeper than Boston and the Bucks are more talented offensively. However, the Bucks need someone to join Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday for the offensive party. Pat Connaughton, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez are the most likely candidates.

Milwaukee has won four of the last five games against Boston. The Bucks have come out victorious in each of the previous three meetings, with the average margin of victory being 4 points.

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Warriors Spread (-3.5) Over Grizzlies 3rd Quarter

Golden State has been terrific in the second half throughout the playoffs. The Warriors have outscored the Grizzlies in the third quarter in all three games by an average of 33-24. They are shooting 53.6% from the field and 36.4% from the 3-point line in the third quarter of the series. The Warriors’ success in the third quarter is somewhat unsurprising since this is when Stephen Curry has been the most aggressive offensively. Curry averages 9 points and 6.7 shots in the third quarter of the series while also attempting three free throws a game. Jordan Poole also has been fantastic in the third quarter of this series, putting up nearly 8 points a game. Golden State is 6-2 against the spread in the third quarter this postseason, outscoring their opponents by almost 4 points a game.

Meanwhile, Memphis has struggled immediately after halftime all postseason long. The Grizzlies are 1-8 against the spread in the third quarter with a minus-5.6 point differential. The Grizzlies have struggled on both ends of the floor during this stanza during the playoffs. They rank 12th in offensive and defensive efficiency, recording an effective field goal percentage of just 49% while allowing their opponents to post an effective field goal percentage of 58.5%. Plus, everyone except for Ja Morant and Dillion Brooks has struggled during this quarter throughout the playoffs.

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Warriors and Grizzlies Under 223 Points

Morant is doubtful for the game tonight due to the knee injury he suffered late in Game 3, though the Grizzlies get Brooks back after a one-game suspension. As a result, the under is the play here, as Memphis has been worse without Morant this entire season. The Grizzlies have an offensive rating of just 95.6 while producing an effective field goal percentage of 43.9% with Morant off the floor this postseason. Not surprisingly, their offensive rating was worse when he was not on the floor during the regular season. While it has not been the case this postseason, the Grizzlies defense was 5 points per 100 possessions better when Morant was off the floor than when he was on. If Morant does indeed sit out, expect the Grizzlies to try to control the tempo and muck the game up to throw the Warriors off their game. OddsShopper gives the under a 52% chance of hitting.

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Marcus Smart Over 2.5 Rebounds

Smart has not rebounded the ball very well over his last two appearances. While he missed Game 2 against the Bucks, Smart only has three rebounds in the series. This is super surprising, as he is a physical player who likes to play bigger than he is and mix it up with his opponents near the basket. As a result, the total is a touch too low. OddsShopper agrees with the assessment, giving Smart a 74% chance of going over the prop with a projection of 3.88 rebounds. The ROI on the over bet is expected to be 16%.

Smart has rebounded the ball decently well during the playoffs, averaging 3.2 in 35 minutes of playing time over six games. He averaged nearly four rebounds a game during the regular season, including grabbing 3.5 boards against the Bucks.

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