Being at home proved advantageous in the NBA playoffs on Tuesday night, as the Phoenix Suns and Miami Heat rolled to 30-point victories to grab a 3-2 lead in their respective series. The home team is now 39-22 throughout the playoffs, including 17-3 in the conference semifinals. Will the home teams continue this trend tonight? Let’s hope that the games are much more competitive than last night, which will make for a more interesting batch of NBA betting picks tonight.
The Milwaukee Bucks and the Boston Celtics start the party with tipoff at 7 p.m. ET on TNT. This is the only conference series where the home team has lost twice. The Celtics have outscored the Bucks by 26 points in the fourth quarter over the last two games, including a 43-28 margin last game pick up an 8-point win in Game 4 in Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Golden State will look to be the first team to advance to the conference finals, holding a 3-1 series lead over a Memphis team that will likely be without Ja Morant (knee) for the rest of the playoffs. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT. The following are the two best NBA bets for Wednesday, May 11.
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Bucks vs. Celtics Prediction & Prop Bets
With the series tied at two games apiece, this one is vitally important for both squads. Expect a physical, close and low-scoring game tonight. The teams are pretty similar, so the winner will likely be the squad that has role players come up big. Boston does have an injury concern with Robert Williams (knee). Williams missed Game 4 and is questionable to play in Game 5. OddsShopper gives Milwaukee a 51% chance of covering the spread.
While only one of the first four games have finished within 5 points, Milwaukee has held a lead in three of the contests heading into the fourth quarter. The Bucks are just too good of a team to continue to melt away in the fourth quarter. They ranked fifth in fourth quarter scoring and scoring differential (+1) during the regular season. Moreover, the Bucks are 26-19 in what the NBA terms “clutch situations.”
Milwaukee is 6-3 in playoffs, including 3-1 on the road with a plus-10.8 scoring margin. The Bucks have not been very efficient on the offensive end during the postseason, averaging just 105.9 points while shooting 44.9% from the field and 34.9% from the 3-point line. They have really struggled from beyond the arc and at the free-throw line. On a positive note offensively, Milwaukee has taken care of the ball pretty well.
However, it has been on the defensive end where the Bucks have thrived this postseason, except for Game 4, where they allowed the Celtics to shoot 50% from the field. Milwaukee ranks No. 1 in defensive efficiency and is the top remaining rebounding team due to its exceptional work on the defensive glass. Defending the 3-point line is the Bucks’ biggest issue. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been fantastic the last two games, though Jrue Holiday needs to increase his efficiency. Holiday is shooting just 33.6% from the field and slightly over 30% from the 3-point line for the series.
Boston is 6-2 in the playoffs, owning identical 3-1 marks at home and on the road. The Celtics have not shot the ball great in this series, but much of that has to do with the Bucks defense. The Celtics are averaging 103.8 points over the last four games on 41.8% shooting and are making 15.3 3-pointers and 18.5 free throws a game. However, turnovers have been a problem for them. Defensively, they have held the Bucks to a little less than 100 points a game on 42.9% shooting from the field.
If you have any reservations about Milwaukee covering the spread concerned, BetMGM is giving away FREE money! All you have to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the Bucks or Celtics hit just one 3-pointer tonight.
Best NBA Bets Today: Bucks Spread (+5.5) vs. Celtics & UNDER 214.5 points
Warriors vs. Grizzlies Prop Bet
The Warriors could roll here. However, the game is back at FedEx Forum and the Grizzlies know how to win without Morant, so the best recommendation is to go with the under.
Memphis is a gritty team that is desperate to extend its season. With Morant out once again, the only way for them to do that is to dig down defensively, much like they did in Game 4. The Grizzlies held the Warriors to 40% shooting and just 9-of-37 from the 3-point line in Game 4. The Grizzlies also forced the Warriors into 16 turnovers.
Memphis has been a better defensive team without Morant all season long, so it would not be surprising to see it put together another gem tonight. The Grizzlies have also struggled offensively, shooting 42% from the field and 33.7% from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Golden State is one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Warriors finished second in the league in defensive ranking during the regular season, and they have limited their playoff opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 52%. Plus, half of the games in the series have finished under the point total.
Best NBA Bet Today: Warriors vs. Grizzlies UNDER 218.5 Points
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