🎲 Wednesday’s NHL Betting Picks: Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens

Despite it being a small slate of games, we are still going to be diving into some NHL betting picks for Wednesday, Feb. 10. With the help of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool, we’ve found some of the best NHL odds and lines for the Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens game. Let’s get into some of my favorite NHL betting picks of the night.

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NHL Betting Picks & Odds: Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens

The Maple Leafs are coming off a three-game series against the Canucks where they outscored them 15-5, winning all three games. On the surface it looks like the Leafs are just rolling over teams, and while that is certainly possible, the Canucks are league worst at giving up high-danger goals on the season. At the same time, the Leafs are sixth in the NHL in high-danger goals. Put a team that has a lot of high-danger chances against a team that gives up the most high-danger goals, and you will get lopsided games like we saw. Auston Matthews has 15 points in 12 games this season and has a goal in eight straight games, which definitely can be attributed to the schedule. Six of the last eight games have been against below-average defensive teams in the Canucks and the Oilers.


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On the flip side of this game, the Canadiens enter the game after three days’ rest, coming off a low-scoring series split again the Senators. The loss was only the second regulation loss of the season for the Canadiens, who have had an excellent start to this shortened season and are enjoying their matchups in the Canadian division. They have three lines capable of scoring every night, making it difficult for opposing teams to key in on one line to slow them down. Carey Price has had an up-and-down start to the season, with a .899 save percentage and 2.81 goals allowed per game, but the Canadiens have held their opponents under 29 shots in six of Price’s eight starts. In an eight-game sample, these numbers seem to be a bit skewed, and the eye test shows more of the Price of old. However, if you look at the high-danger save percentage, the duo of Price and Jake Allen lead the NHL at .918. Tyler Toffoli has been a great signing so far. Even though he primarily skates on the third line, he currently leads the Habs in points, with 13 in 12 games.

Best Bet: Montreal Canadiens -105 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

As some were expecting, there is some definite recency bias baked into this line. The Habs are coming into this game against the Leafs as a small home underdog at -105. Do not be fooled; the Leafs beat up on one of the worst defensive teams in hockey, but this is one of the toughest matchups on paper. The Habs are one of the best teams in hockey at five-on-five. The Canadiens are fifth in the NHL in Corsi-for percentage at 53.5% and league best with only 4 high-danger goals against. The Matthews line has been doing most of the goal scoring for the Leafs, but they have a brutal matchup tonight against an elite five-on-five line of Tomas Tatar, Brendan Gallagher and Phillip Danault. In an almost 700-minute sample size spanning multiple seasons, that line has a 61% Corsi-for and 3.27 expected goals for, which is well above league average.

On the other side of the ice, despite the Leafs being one of the more power offensive teams in the league, they do have some issues defensively. The Leafs are eighth worst at giving up high-danger scoring chances and are league average with a 51.49% Corsi-for. With all this taken into account, it is a tad shocking the Canadiens are almost even-money underdogs at home, especially because the Habs get to dictate the matchups they want with last change on home ice. At the current price of -105, this is my favorite bet on the board for this two-game slate.

Bonus Bet: David Pastrnak Anytime Scorer +102 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Bruins are heading to Madison Square Garden to face the Rangers tonight, and while the Rangers are a lot of things, they are very weak on the blue line and will have issues keeping Boston off the scoreboard. Pastrnak has 5 goals in just four games this season and has scored at least 1 point in every game. If the books are going to give plus money on Pastrnak to score against the Rangers every game this season, it would be a bet I would make every time. It is very good value on one of the elite goal scorers in the league going up against a sub-par defensive team.


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