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Corner Kick: Outright & Longshot Euro 2020 Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions | Friday, 6/11/21

Jovanni Vidal



Euro 2020 betting odds, picks, predictions and expert best bets for EUFA teams with England, France and Belgium as favorites to win the outright championship

The following are Euro 2020 betting picks and predictions where I agree with the results driven by my betting model. These are selected after careful review of the best available soccer betting lines and Euro 2020 betting odds, which can be found via OddsShopper.

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Euro 2020 Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Outright Champion Pick

Belgium (+600)

The Euro odds have a close race to win between three teams: France (+500), England (+550) and Belgium (+600). The assumption is Belgium will win Group B since they are the clear favorite to do so. England will see little resistance claiming Group D. France is off the board considering they may not make it out of the group, with tight matchups against Portugal and Germany set up. France, Portugal and Germany are so tough to call in the group that none has shorter odds than +148 to win. Portugal and Germany seem the likeliest to advance from the toughest group of the Euro. That leaves the options at England or Belgium for the outright Euro winner.

England is in Group D, and if they win the group, they would face the second-place finisher of Group F in the round of 16. That means they will face either France, Portugal or Germany. Should they advance, they would face Spain. This is assuming Spain is priced accordingly and does not disappoint, as they often do during Euro and World Cup runs. Belgium would see one of the weaker teams left of the third-place group finishers in the round of 16. If they advance, the hardest task would be Netherlands.

Based on the road to victory, Belgium has the edge. Both England and Belgium have the offense to fire past any opponent. They met twice in recent matches and split the head-to-head. England’s toughest road is Spain, who has lost one match out of its last 12. They have a notable draw to Germany and the Netherlands. They also posted a convincing 6-0 victory over Germany. England has all the talent in the world, but they could also be just as disappointing as Spain in big moments, with their captain, Harry Kane, yet to lead any clubs he has been on to victory in crucial moments.

Belgium could encounter Italy, which has a tough defense. But the firepower of Belgium is going to prove too much, even if Italy gets on the scoresheet. Netherlands should not concern Belgium neither, as they are a team destined to outscore their opponents. The No. 16 club in FIFA has been on a down swing since the golden years of 2011 to 2014, in some ways because they cannot keep the ball out of their own net.

With the form, offensive pedigree and potential matchups should they both advance to the finals, Belgium is the pick to win the Euro. Realistically, one could lay a unit on each of them and still have great return considering they should not meet until the finals, and it is still hedging against France’s shorter odds for victory.

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Longshot Champion Pick

Spain (+900)

Spain is likely face England, and Spain has the ability to play up to competition. They also have one of the easier groups. This would imply one of the easier round-of-16 matches, like Belgium has. Do not forget that Spain is not far moved form winning back-to-back Euros. They still produce a talented team with Gerard Moreno, Sergio Ramos, Ferran Torres and Alvaro Morata playing on top championship clubs. The concern for Spain is the goalkeeping. They have not lost much, but have allowed goals to Kosovo, Georgia and Greece in meaningful games.

The Spaniards have kept four clean sheets in their last 12 matches. This is a different look than a team that saw clean sheets as just another day at the office. The model has their odds to win the whole tournament as shorter than the +900, and given the path potential matchup against England rather than Belgium, they are a solid longshot to win the Euro.

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Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Awesemo to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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