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Corner Kick: Euro 2020 Group A & B Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions | Friday, 6/11/21

Jovanni Vidal



Euro 2020 betting odds, picks, predictions and expert preview for Group A and Group B winners, as well as free soccer bets. Italy Denmark

The following are Euro 2020 betting picks where I agree with the results driven by my betting model. These are selected after careful review of the best available soccer betting lines and Euro 2020 odds, which can be found via OddsShopper.

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Euro 2020 Betting Preview: Picks, Odds, Predictions

Group A Betting Preview

The European Championship kicks off on June 11 with a solo match from Group A between Turkey and Italy. Italy is the favorite to win the group at -186 (DraftKings). Switzerland (+110) and Turkey (+130) are basically a coin flip to take second and advance. Wales rounds out the group at +230 to advance and +1200 to win. Italy is the strongest of the teams, with discipline on the backline and seven consecutive clean sheets. Of note in that stretch was a clean sheet against strong Poland side. The Italians are hard to bet against in the group stage, with a midfield that controls both the ball and pace of play with Jorginho, Nicolo Barella and the backline kept in check by Leonardo Bonucci.

Group A Stage: Italy Over 5.5 Goals (-106)

In general this group is tough to bet, but an interesting prop is Italy to score over 5.5 goals in the group stage (-106). They have been shut out just once in their last 12 matches and have scored two or more in their last seven. The competition is higher than recent opponents here, but not by much. Turkey is a potent offense, but it comes at the cost of their defense. They have allowed a barrage of goals in meaningful games to Latvia, Netherlands and Russia, which are all opponents Italy is a tier above. Wales has a similar defense but lack the offensive form of Turkey. Switzerland is more sound defensively, but by the time Italy meets them they will still be looking to clinch some goals and a win.

Group A Stage: Switzerland Goals Over 3.5 (-106)

The Switzerland goal marker in the group stage is also interesting at over 3.5. They are unlikely to score against Italy, but the matchup against Wales and Turkey should be enough. Switzerland has a handful of talented players, starting with Ricardo Rodriguez on the wing. He presses the offense and creates chances by way of the aerial assault. He has been a forgotten soul sitting on the bench of Milan in Serie A. Rodriguez got some chances this past season with Torino, returned to average scoring chances created and now has an upgraded roster back with his nation.

The Switzerland front man, Haris Seferovic is in great form, coming off two 20-goals seasons in three years for Benfica in Portugal. The goal mark seems a bit low for a team rounded out by Mario Gavranovic and a sometimes-healthy Xherdan Shaqiri.

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Group B Betting Preview

Group B is top heavy, with No. 1 Belgium squad leading the pack. They have little in the way of adversity against Denmark, Russia and Finland. Kevin De Bruyne will not need surgery for facial injuries suffered in the Champions League finals and should return to national duties. Regardless of whether he returns or not, Belgium won’t have much trouble advancing. The squad has too much talent, starting with the scoring machine Romelu Lukaku. 

Top Goal Scorer: Romelu Lukaku (+700)

Lukaku alone provides solid value in a prop to tally the most goals in the tournament at +700. He is the penalty taker for Belgium and has scored a goal in each of the most recent starts. When considering a goal prop for the tournament, it is important to consider how far a team will go. Belgium is capable of winning the entire Euro Championship. Along the way they will face mediocre defenses in Russia and Finland. Lukaku is also coming off back-to-back 20-goal seasons with Inter Milan and just under three shots per game on average across that stretch.

He will compete for the title with slight favorite Harry Kane of England at +650. One could also argue for Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal and Kylian Mbappe of France. The issue with Ronaldo is Portugal will likely not make it out of the group stage. They face France and Germany in that same group, and a handful of matches will not be enough for Ronaldo to hold the lead unless he hat tricks in each of the games, also a tall order against Germany and France.

Mbappe is on a team that is loaded with offensive strikers, including the addition of Karim Benzema. Mbappe is a world-class player that will get his chances. The penalties are still in control of Antoine Griezmann, and the shot volume looks spread. The safer hedge looks to be a unit on both Kane and Lukaku, and if they tie, bettors win both at half odds for a 3x return.

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Group B Stage: Belgium Goals Over 5.5 (-106)

Belgium to score 5.5 of more in the group stage also is tempting. They have handed offensive beatdowns to irrelevant defenses and cannot be kept off the score sheet against England, Wales and Denmark. Belgium is averaging 2.62 goals per game in recent form when removing matches against Belarus. No De Bruyne will be no problem, as the club is filled with talent in Hans Vanaken, Thorgan Hazard and Lukaku’s backup, Christian Benteke. The squad has averaged over 11 shots per match with 43.3% on-target accuracy.

In their group they will face Finland, which has allowed two or more goals in four of five recent matches. Russia cannot buy a win, losing or drawing eight of their last 12. In that stretch Russia has allowed three or more to Turkey and Serbia. Denmark is the only opponent that has a sound defense and has played well in recent form, with eight clean sheets in their last 12 matches. Two of those defeats and non-clean sheets came at the hands of Belgium, who butchered them 0-2 and 2-4.

Best Bets

Group B Stage: Belgium Goals Over 5.5 (-106)

Top Goal Scorer: Romelu Lukaku (+700)

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Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Awesemo to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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