Ciryl Gane will take on Derrick Lewis in the main event of UFC 265 on Saturday. While that fight will get the primary focus, there are plenty of others from which to derive betting value. Let’s get into the UFC prop bets and start cashing on some of these big-hitting tickets.
UFC Betting Picks & Prop Bets: UFC 265 Lewis vs. Gane
Ciryl Gane +1000 by Submission (SugarHouse)
Gane takes on Lewis for the men’s interim heavyweight title this weekend. Coming in as a -365 favorite, Gane enters this fight with a perfect 9-0 record. He most recently defeated Alexander Volkov via decision. On the other side, Lewis has rattled off a four-fight winning streak, most recently defeating Curtis Blaydes via knockout. Both fighters are known primarily as strikers. Gane is a former professional kickboxer, but he continues to develop a strong ground game. To this point in his career he has three submission victories and has an advantage over Lewis on the mat. Gane averages 0.82 takedowns per bout, which could exploit Lewis’ 54% takedown defense. Lewis has only been submitted one time in the UFC. This came in his previous title bout against Daniel Cormier, but the odds here are too good to pass up. Gane has a clear advantage on the mat, and his +1000 submission prop carries the chance for an enormous payout at UFC 265.
Vicente Luque +340 by Knockout (BetMGM)
Vicente Luque faces Michael Chiesa in a fight with even -110 odds. Luque enters this bout on a three-fight winning streak, most recently defeating Randy Brown and Tyron Woodley. Similarly, Chiesa enters this bout on a four-fight winning streak after beating Rafael dos Anjos and Neil Magny. This fight is a true clash of styles. Chiesa is known primarily for his wrestling, landing 3.60 takedowns on average. Luque only defends takedowns at 65% throughout his career, but he has improved of late. In his last 10 fights Luque has only allowed three total takedowns. None of those fighters landing takedowns were able to control Luque for more than two minutes, highlighting his scrambling ability. This should allow Luque to keep the fight standing, where he has a significant edge. Luque lands 5.78 significant strikes per minute with elite stopping power. Eleven of Luque’s 20 professional wins have come via knockout. Chiesa only absorbs 1.71 significant strikes per minute. However, this is mainly the result of his wrestling-heavy game. Chiesa only has 54% striking defense, opening the door to Luque’s striking. Coming in with +340 odds, the knockout is a legitimate path to victory for Luque.
Anderson dos Santos +800 by Submission (BetMGM)
Two up-and-coming prospects in Miles Johns and Anderson dos Santos face off on the UFC 265 prelims. Johns enters this fight with a 3-1 record in the UFC, most recently defeating short-notice replacement Kevin Natividad. Conversely, dos Santos is 1-2 in the UFC with losses to Nad Narimani and Andre Ewell. However, he submitted Martin Day in his most recent fight. As for this bout, dos Santos is a +175 underdog, but his strong ground game cannot be counted out. Dos Santos averages 1.30 takedowns but excels in jiu-jitsu. A black belt in the discipline, dos Santos has 12 of his 21 professional wins coming via submission. Johns, on the other hand, is known primarily for his wrestling. He averages 1.21 takedowns, but dos Santos often welcomes fights to the mat. To this point Johns has never lost via submission. However, dos Santos has fought the better competition to this point in his career. At +800, dos Santos by submission gives the opportunity for a massive payoff.
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