Hello everyone and welcome to the first MMA betting breakdown for Awesemo’s great new addition, OddsShopper. My name is Pete Rogers Jr, and I am a professional MMA fighter who has a deep-rooted passion for martial arts. This week’s #UFCFightIsland4 is going to be insane with 15 fights, and it’s important to target the right fights, get the best UFC odds and make the most valuable UFC picks . Let’s take a look!
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UFC Betting Pick #1: Aspinall via KO/TKO
UFC Betting odds: +105
After watching a ton of film on all of these combatants, I can really get behind Tom Aspinall, who is facing Jake Collier. Aspinall comes from a great gym in Team Kaobon, with the likes of Darren Till, and Mike Grundy. Aspinall has a wealth of knowledge in a variety of martial arts, spanning from being a sparring partner for the infamous Tyson Fury, becoming a multi-time British BJJ champion, and also a British junior wrestling champion. Aspinall is facing Collier, a former UFC fighter, who has progressed through the weight classes of 185, 205, and now 265. Collier likes to mix up his attack, from flashy kicks and punches, to takedowns when he is fatigued. The problem in this matchup is that Aspinall is better than him everywhere. Aspinall can wrestle, scramble, and most importantly light him up on the feet. I know that Aspinall is making his UFC debut and a lot of people are pumping the brakes, but this might be one of my favorite spots on the entire card. Targeting Aspinall straight up at (-270) is a bit much for a debutant, but I would much rather look towards Aspinall via KO/TKO at (+105). If you’re feeling risky, a juicy prop bet of Aspinall via SUB sits at (+1800) for a guy who is quite accomplished on the mat, and is a true Heavyweight.
UFC Betting Pick #2: Boser via decision
UFC Betting Odds: +105
In the most unpredictable sport of MMA, sometimes you are gifted with discovering trends with some fighters, one of which is Tanner Boser, who has built a career off of outpointing slower heavyweights, and doing just enough to win on the scorecards. Not known particularly for his finishing ability, Boser ruined many “To Go The Distance” bets in his previous outing, when he starched Phillipe Lins with a quick KO/TKO. Despite his recent performance, I really like this matchup for Boser to get back to his old ways of winning decisions. Boser will be facing off against Raphael Pessoa, an aggressive and explosive striker, with minimal cardio and suspect ground game. Boser’s ability to keep his opponents at bay whilst utilizing leg kicks, and movement should cause Pessoa some problems. The experience, cardio, output, movement, and durability should be enough for Boser to get by Pessoa. Boser straight up at (-265) is a little too much for my liking, I’d much rather take Boser via Decision at (+105).
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UFC Betting Pick #3: Grundy straight up
UFC Betting Odds: +165
Finally, let’s touch on an underdog that we can get behind and that is Mike Grundy. Grundy is a highly decorated Bronze Medalist in Freestyle Wrestling, and is apart of Team Kaobon with the likes of Darren Till and the aforementioned Tom Aspinall. Grundy has developed a well-rounded mixed martial arts game, ranging from tight boxing, submission attempts and incredible wrestling. Overall, I am impressed with Mike Grundy in this featherweight division, and I think he can be a problem for a lot of fighters due to his pressure and strength. However, Grundy is not matched with an easy opponent in Movsar Evloev, the former M1 champ. Evloev is an evolving young fighter who does not have much power in his striking, but relies more on his volume, tenacity and heavy takedown approach to win fights. I think he could run into some trouble in this matchup against Grundy though. If there was ever an opponent who could stuff Evloev’s takedown attempts, scramble and potentially put Evloev in bad positions, it’s Grundy. Grundy’s wrestling pedigree transitions well to the sport of MMA, and after seeing Evloev fade and give up a takedown to Enrique Barzola, I’m confident that Grundy can pull off the upset here at (+168) with his powerful boxing and great wrestling.
Thanks so much for reading my first MMA betting breakdown article for ODDS SHOPPER, and I hope you win some money! Also, each and every week you can find me and my co-host, Jason Floyd, breaking down the UFC fights from a DFS perspective on Awesemo’s YouTube Channel! If you have any questions or want to reach out to me, hit me up on Twitter @PeteTheHeatMMA
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