A number of bets standout as strong values ahead of this week’ UFC Vegas 32 card. The volatile fights along with a few safer UFC picks bring solid betting potential. Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool remains a crucial key to maximizing profits in these betting markets. Let’s get into the UFC betting picks and start cashing on some of these big-hitting tickets.
UFC Vegas 32 Betting Picks: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw
Ian Heinisch -154 (BetMGM)
Fighting in the men’s middleweight division, Ian Heinisch takes on Nassourdine Imavov. Heinisch enters this fight with a 14-4 record, but he has dropped three of his last four fights. This includes his most recent loss to Kelvin Gastelum. Conversely, Imavov is 9-3 in his career and 1-1 at the UFC level, with a loss to Phil Hawes. This is an interesting fight from a betting perspective, with two fighters at different points in their careers. Heinisch has the superior strength of schedule, while Imavov has a four-inch height and three-reach advantage. On the feet Imavov is a lethal striker, landing 4.17 significant strikes per minute. However, he has struggled with pressure fighters at various points in his career. Heinisch lands 3.28 significant strikes himself and brings a background in Muay Thai. On the mat Heinisch looks to hold an advantage despite both fighters having wrestling experience. Heinisch lands 1.13 takedowns per bout, compared to 0.50 for Imavov. Neither fighter has elite takedown defense, but Imavov allowed four takedowns in his most recent fight against Hawes. Hawes controlled Imavov on the mat for over 11 minutes, highlighting a potential weakness in his game. This could offer Heinisch another avenue to win rounds. With Heinisch entering this fight with the experience edge and multiple paths to victory, he looks like a sharp bet at -154.
Brendan Allen -110 (William Hill)
Another men’s middleweight fight, Brendan Allen fights Punahele Soriano as a -105 underdog. Soriano is a hot prospect with a perfect 8-0 record coming into this fight. However, he has fought questionable competition in the UFC, with his best win coming over Dusko Todorovic. On the other side, Allen is 16-4 but has taken on legitimate competition. All four of his losses came against UFC competition, even though three occurred on the regional scene. Recently Allen lost to Sean Strickland before avenging this loss with a win over Karl Roberson. From a stylistic perspective, Soriano holds the striking advantage, while Allen is the superior grappler. Allen has recently made strides in his striking game, training out of Sanford MMA of late. He also has a three-inch height and reach advantage over Soriano. Still, Soriano will be the superior striker here, making the takedown Allen’s best path to victory. Allen averages 1.73 takedowns on average and has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Soriano has not defended a takedown at this point in his UFC career, but Allen has taken down comparable competition. With Allen holding a distinct edge on the mat and the superior strength of schedule, he makes sense at -105 odds.
Darren Elkins +130 (Sugar House)
On the main card Darren Elkins will fight Darrick Minner in the men’s featherweight division. Elkins enters with a 25-9 professional record. He has fought some of the top competition in the UFC and recently defeated Eduardo Garagorri. Conversely, Minner has a 26-11 professional record and is 2-2 in the UFC with wins over T.J. Laramie and Charles Rosa. Minner is a legitimate submission specialist; 22 of his 26 professional wins occurred via submission, while he has been submitted eight times himself. Minner lands three takedowns on average, which could exploit Elkins’ 58% takedown defense. However, Minner displays some of the same weaknesses, with 60% takedown defense. He also gets a different challenge in Elkins. Against Rosa Minner enjoyed top control with Rosa comfortable working off his back. Elkins has excellent scrambling and the ability to reverse positions, creating a different challenge on the mat. On the feet neither fighter is particularly aggressive, but Elkins lands 3.50 significant strikes per minute. Minner has a suspect striking defense at 43%, creating additional openings for Elkins. Elkins is already past his prime, but his veteran skillset creates a unique challenge for Minner. As a +130 underdog, Elkins is an underdog worth targeting.
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