US Open ATP Tennis Preview, Analysis, Best Bets and Picks

Wimbledon may be my favorite of the four tennis majors, but the summer hard court swing that concludes with the US Open is by far the best time to be an American tennis fan. Matches will start around 11 am eastern and run through the evening, which is a billion times more convenient than some of the Eastern European/Asian stops they make later in the season where matches will be played through the night and early morning.

To help break down both sides of the draw at this year’s US Open, I also have a new tool I’ve developed that uses the same model I use to create the (FREE!) daily Tennis Projections here at Awesemo.com to simulate through the brackets and output estimated outright probabilities for all the participants in the main draw.

Djokovic quarter:

Sportsbooks are giving Novak Djokovic a 42% chance (+133) to win the entire tournament and a 75% chance of winning this quarter. My model thinks those likelihoods are only 20% and 55%, respectively. Quite frankly, neither a computer model nor sportsbooks are probably going to put an accurate number on one of the Big 3 winning this tournament. All 3 of them are obviously dominant and deserve to be heavily favored, but a computer model can’t measure their intangibles and ability to win the important points (see: Novak winning fewer points than Roger Federer in the Wimbledon Final but finding a way to grind out the biggest points of the match and taking it down). Sportsbooks also have to put a premium on the odds of them winning the tournament, because they’re practically the only players any casual tennis bettors would know about and thus bet. 

All that being said, I don’t like backing Djoker here, especially at +133 to win the tournament. If the entire tournament were played to chalk he’d have to beat Fed in the semis and Nadal in the Finals. I don’t see him having a 42% chance to do that.

This is also a quietly tough draw for Novak even after Kevin Anderson withdrew. RCB may as well be a walkover, but Sam Querrey has been a nice story this year and certainly won’t be your typical easy 2nd round match (Querrey also beat Novak at 2016 Wimbledon and 2012 Paris). He also has to contend with Wawrinka on this side of the quarter (though by the way Stan’s 1R match against the youngster Jannik Sinner from Italy could be a really tough match).

On the other side of the bracket we have the human “?!?” emoji Fabio Fognini and Daniil Medvedev, who’s so hot right now. Medvedev won the Cincinnati Masters (and took down Novak on the way) and lost to Rafa in the finals in Toronto. Medvedev I think is perfectly lined by Vegas so that’s a pass for me and I have no idea if Fognini is interested in playing in this tournament.

Whew, that’s a long winded way to say no bets in this quarter. If you want to take a stab on Americans Taylor Fritz or Reilly Opelka, those could be fun. My model thinks Opelka wins the quarter 6% of the time and takes the entire thing down 1.5% of the time, with Fritz at 2.8% and .35% respectively. 

My pick: Djokovic def. Medvedev

Model’s Pick: Djokovic def. Medvedev

Federer quarter:

I am admittedly worried about Roger’s mental state coming off of that brutal loss in Wimbledon. It really seemed like winning that tournament again as a sort of curtain call meant more to him than anything. Is he going to be able to grind out 7 wins here? I think I’m willing to gamble on it, especially at the price of Roger Federer (+700). Unlike Novak, the competition in this quarter is extremely weak. My model consistently underrates Nishikori, but I don’t see him winning this tournament. Is there anyone else that can seriously push him until he meets Novak in the semis? I don’t think so.

My pick: Federer def. Nishikori

Model’s Pick: Federer def. Raonic

Thiem quarter:

This quarter is freaking loaded with young talent: Tsitsipas, Kyrgios, Berrettini, Humbert, Shapovalov, FAA, Bublik (who the model adores), Thiem. These men are the future of the ATP. 

I’m going to start with the aforementioned Alexander Bublik here. I have no idea if (and frankly, doubt) he can bring his form from Newport into this tournament, but if he does he has a real chance to make a deep run. I like his quarter future at +2500 because you’re basically betting that he can get by Thiem and can always hedge out vs Monfils or whoever wins the top half of the quarter. Bublik is also one of the most unique watches on the tour. Similar to Kyrgios, he loves tweeners, underhanded serves, trick shots, etc. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbWAAdUszOs).

I’ve seen some hype around this being Dominic Thiem’s tournament, but I don’t think I can go there. The case for him is that his time to win a major has to be soon and he won a Masters 1000 hard court title at Indian Wells earlier this year (also on hard courts). He is almost certainly a lock to win at least one title at Roland Garros, yet on faster courts I can’t buy all the way in with him. I don’t think he creates enough easy points for himself like Rafa and Djokovic do. For example, while Thiem has an Ace percentage of 8.7 on hard courts compared to Djokovic’s 7.5 and Rafa’s 6.3, Thiem only wins 67% of his service points on hard courts thanks to a 55% win rate on 2nd serves (Djokovic 71% SP Won, Nadal 70%) . That’s also reflected in Thiem’s average of 2.1 service points lost per game on hard courts (Djokovic 1.7, Nadal 1.8). These may seem like minute differences, but over the course of two weeks of 5 set matches, those differences start to add up. All it takes is a couple dumb service games lost to find yourself out of a tournament.

I backed Matteo Berrettini (+30000) at Wimbledon and he came through with a nice run to the round of 16 before bowing out to Federer. I’m going to go back to the well with both his outright price and his quarter price (+6600). He has been struggling with an ankle injury and has played sparingly over the last month and could easily lose to Gasquet if he shows signs of rust, so there is some risk here. I just really like his talent and think if he’s healthy he can beat anyone in this quarter. These prices are way too high in my estimation. The model also agrees, pricing him at about +10000 to win the tournament and about +2000 to win the quarter.

My pick: Berrettini def. Thiem

Model’s Pick: Monfils def. Tsitsipas

Nadal quarter:

I don’t think this draw could have gone any better for Rafael Nadal. He is deservedly a massive -165 favorite to win this quarter. At that price I think you’re betting on him to not get hurt — there’s just simply nobody in this quarter that can compete with him. Khachanov really challenged him in this tournament last year and has shown some of that form of late. Isner has never beaten Rafa, Sascha Zverev always seems to find a way to lose big matches, Tiafoe has the service game to make a run should he get past Zverev, Hyeon Chung is a great story now that he’s seemingly battled back from his injury issues. But none of these guys are anywhere near Rafa’s level. Nadal quarter (-165) for me, and a half unit sprinkle on Frances Tiafoe (+3300).

My pick: Nadal def. Tiafoe

Model’s Pick: Isner def. Zverev

Semis:

My pick: Federer def. Djokovic,  Nadal def. Berrettini

Model’s Pick: Djokovic def. Federer, Isner def. Monfils

Finals:

My pick: Federer def. Nadal 

Model’s Pick: Djokovic def. Isner

Plays:

Federer outright +700

Berrettini outright +30000, quarter +6600

Nadal quarter -165

Tiafoe quarter +3300

 

Blaine Jungwirth contributes expert tennis and data analysis to Awesemo.com. Blaine's work in quantifying fantasy production in tennis is amongst the tops in the industry and his tennis projections are a must-have for any fan of the emerging field of tennis DFS. You can contact Blaine by emailing [email protected].

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