Welcome to the Awesemo Expert Golf Betting Picks page for The U.S. Open. Our golf betting experts have outlined their favorite bets of the week and located some of the best PGA betting odds and top options on BetMGM, PointsBet and more! We have loads of promo codes available if you’re new to the world of sports betting.
PGA Odds, Best Bets & Picks: The U.S. Open
In this new weekly article, our golf experts will give their favorite PGA betting picks, odds and predictions of the week for the upcoming U.S. Open.
Ben Rasa’s Pick: Patrick Cantlay
Outright 25-1 (PointsBet)
I wouldn’t say Cantlay is the most likely winner of the U.S. Open, but the price on him compared to the rest of the elite players at the top was the difference. Cantlay sits at 25-1 outright, while tournament favorite Jon Rahm is all the way down at 10-1, and several others are in the 15-1 to 20-1 range. That is a big difference, and Cantlay comes in red hot after his win at Memorial. More important than the result was Cantlay gaining a video game 14.3 strokes tee to green.
Cantlay doesn’t have a ton of experience at the Farmers, but I don’t really care about that considering this is a U.S. Open and Torrey Pines should set up differently. He is a California guy, so the greens shouldn’t produce anything he hasn’t seen, and the way he is striking it puts him squarely in contention. The combination of form and price was enough for him to be one of my favorite options in the outright market this week.
Geoff Ulrich’s Pick: Jimmy Walker
Top 10 +3300 | Top 20 +1200 | First-Round Leader +15000 (PointsBet)
The U.S. Open offers little value when choosing from the top names, although I do like the outright odds on both Cantlay and Rory McIlroy this week. I would rather look to placing bets for this event, though, and Walker is the target. He put in a blistering performance in his lead-up start at the Memorial, finishing sixth there, his first top-10 finish on tour since the 2018 Byron Nelson. He tied Collin Morikawa for second in strokes gained tee to green and gained 9.1 strokes ball striking.
Walker was an elite performer in majors in the mid-2010s, landing a PGA win and three other top-20 finishes in majors in a three-year span. He has also had tons of success on the West Coast in his career, winning at Pebble Beach and landing numerous top-10 finishes at Torrey Pines. The price for a top-20 is juicy — so juicy that it offers you bigger odds than picking Rahm in the outright department. Given the success of golfers aged 40 and up this year (Phil Mickelson, Stewart Cink, Lee Westwood), I like hopping on Walker here for a big week and hoping he has that one last ride in him as well.
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Max Smotritskiy’s Pick: Jhonattan Vegas
Top 10 +1300 | Top 20 +500 | First-Round Leader +15000 (PointsBet)
All stats point to the winner coming from the few names with short odds this week. This leads me to betting more first-round leader, head-to-head and placement bets than a tournament that is more wide open. The form that Vegas is sporting leading up to this tournament is nothing short of fantastic. This course screams bombers, and that is exactly what Vegas brings to the table. Second in driving distance in this field in the last two months, he has also gained 23 strokes off the tee in his last five tournaments. These numbers are staggering enough, but Vegas has also gained strokes on approach in three of five starts and mixed in some great short-game results as well. Betting one of the first few groups on the course is usually a profitable strategy in first-round-leader bets, as they get a soft course that is less windy in the wee hours of the morning. Vegas is teeing off in the second group, and that is another small checkmark for this bet.
Jason Rouslin’s Pick: Justin Thomas
Outright 22-1 | Top 10 +180 | Top 20 -110 (BetMGM)
While it hasn’t been a great year for Thomas, he did win one of the biggest events of the year. His tee-to-green game also hasn’t been an issue at all; it’s been the flat stick that’s plagued him. In fact, Thomas last gained over a stroke putting 25 weeks ago, and since that tournament he has had nine starts and lost well over stroke putting per round in three of them. On top of that, in two of those three, he lost almost 10 strokes putting for the tournament. However, all of the hard work he’s been doing with the flat stick will pay off this week if he wins his second major. This feels eerily similar to The Players, where Thomas came in at odds greater than 20-1, something not typically seen from the second-ranked player in the world.
Eric Lindquist’s Pick: Sam Burns
Outright 100-1 | Top 5 +1600 (PointsBet)
It is feast or famine with Burns in 2021. In his last seven events, he has three top-three finishes (including a win at the Valspar) but also three missed cuts. This sort of sporadic play can be frustrating in PGA DFS if you’re not on him the right weeks, but his ability to make his made cuts count is exactly what you’re looking for in the betting market. Throwing the Memorial out the window, Burns comes in striping the golf ball, gaining 11.8 and 16.7 strokes tee to green in his last two events. He has also flashed some putting upside on poa annua greens earlier this season, gaining 6.4 strokes with the flat stick at the Genesis en route to a third-place finish. Sign me up for Burns at 100-1, and don’t forget to partner a top-five along with it.
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