Wimbledon may be my favorite of the four tennis majors, but the summer hard court swing that concludes with the US Open is by far the best time to be an American tennis fan. Matches will start around 11 am eastern and run through the evening, which is a billion times more convenient than some of the Eastern European/Asian stops they make later in the season where matches will be played through the night and early morning.
To help break down both sides of the draw at this year’s US Open, I also have a new tool I’ve developed that uses the same model I use to create the (FREE!) daily Tennis Projections here at Awesemo.com to simulate through the brackets and output estimated outright probabilities for all the participants in the main draw.
Osaka Quarter:
Me after seeing how much my model like Kiki Bertens yet again:Â
I don’t think I can endorse Kiki in this spot. She’s never made it past the third round of the US Open and isn’t playing at the same level as she was earlier this season. If you were going to place a wager on her I much prefer her quarter price at +600 simply because her draw through to the quarters isn’t very intimidating.Â
Naomi Osaka won the other hard court major this year at the Australian Open and won last year’s US Open, but that feels like five lifetimes ago. I backed her at Wimbledon and she flamed out in the first round against Putintseva and she retired in the quarters in Cincinnati vs Kenin due to a knee injury.Â
I don’t love the draw for Marie Bouzkova (+20000), but I think we’re getting some value on both her outright price and her quarter price. Osaka has knee issues, Bencic also retired from her last match in Cincinnati with a foot issue and after those two this half of the quarter is pretty weak. Bouzkova was a surprise semifinalist in Toronto and if the two favorites are limited by injuries at all she has a real chance to make a deep run.
My pick: Bertens def. Bouzkova
Model’s Pick: Bertens def. Osaka
Halep Quarter:
The two big stories from this quarter are: Will Bianca Andreescu ever lose a major tournament on a hard court? Can Sloane Stephens find any kind of form now that she’s back with her old coach, Kamau Murray?Â
Andreescu is one of the brightest young talents on the WTA tour. At 19, she’s taken down Premier tournaments at both Indian Wells and Toronto this year. In 2019 she is an unreal 33-4 on hard courts against elite competition. She doesn’t have the type of game where she just blows opponents off the court, but she always seems to find a way to grind out the big points and win — more Djokovic than Serena. If you wanted to back her at +1400 outright and +450 to win the quarter I wouldn’t blame you.
As for me, I don’t see any real value in this quarter. Everyone seems fairly priced — maybe we can throw a dart on Muguruza (+5000) and hope she can find some form.Â
My pick: Andreescu def. Stephens
Model’s Pick: Halep def. Kuznetsova
Pliskova Quarter:
Finally, *finally*, we get a quarter with a play that I really love. Madison Keys (+1200) lost to Sloane Stephens in the US Open final in 2017 and last year lost to eventual champion Naomi Osaka in the semis. Famous last words saying this about Madison Keys, but I think this is finally her time to take down a major. She just won in Cincinnati so she is in form, she obviously has played well in this tournament in her career, and this draw sets up really nicely for her. Svitolina is never easy, and even Yastremska could be tricky should she make it that far, but an in form Keys should be able to handle both of them on hard courts. Assuming she makes it that far, she should be basically a pick ‘em against Pliskova, and then probably a small underdog to Barty or Serena. Plenty of hedge opportunities if you wished to get out of this play at that point, but I’ll just plan on letting it ride.
My pick: Keys def. Pliskova
Model’s Pick: Pliskova def. Keys
Barty Quarter:
Serena is undoubtedly the greatest women’s tennis player of all time and she makes it really difficult to really love any outrights in this quarter. However I just don’t have any confidence in her body holding up for two weeks, e.g. she made a great run in Toronto but retired in the final against Andreescu due to back spasms.Â
The model seems to think there’s a lot of value in both Petra Martic (+4000) and Qiang Wang (+3300) to win the quarter, and I’m inclined to agree. Martic has had a fantastic year and should be able to get through Zidansek, Bogdan, and Sevastova. I don’t think she should be a short enough dog to be able to hedge out even at that price against Serena, we’d probably be hoping that Serena either gets upset or has to retire due to injury before then. Should that happen, Martic would be very hedgeable, even against Barty or Kerber. Wang similarly gets a pretty good draw, up until having to play Kerber. Should she get through that, we’d be able to hedge against Barty.
The first round matchups in this quarter also may have been made for the crew in the Awesemo slack Tennis channel. Sakkari vs Giorgi is probably going to cause arguments, Genie Bouchard is at least going to get a first round match against Sevastova and Sharapova vs Serena should be way more fun than your typical 1R match at a Grand Slam.
My pick: Barty def. Martic
Model’s Pick: Barty def. Muchova
Semis:
My pick: Andreescu def. Bertens, Keys def. Barty
Model’s Pick: Bertens def. Halep, Pliskova def. Barty
Finals:
My pick: Keys def. Andreescu
Model’s Pick: Pliskova def. Bertens
Plays:
Muguruza outright +5000
Bouzkova outright +20000
Keys outright +1200, quarter +500
Martic quarter +4000
Wang quarter +3300