The Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers will play the second half of a two-part series tonight. The Jazz took the first game by an 18-point margin, but the Clippers didn’t have Kawhi Leonard, Paul George or Nicolas Batum. All three players are listed as questionable for round two. News about their status later in the evening is sure to swing the NBA betting picks market, but as of right now, here’s where the odds stand.
NBA Betting Picks, Odds & Betting Trends | Jazz vs. Clippers
Jazz vs. Clippers Game Info
Utah Jazz (24-5) at Los Angeles Clippers (21-9)
Date: Friday, Feb. 19, 2021
Start Time: 10 p.m. EST
Venue: STAPLES Center
Coverage: ESPN
I’ve already broken down the key injuries that the Clippers are dealing with, and the news surrounding those players will determine my read of this line. The Clippers had gone on a 2-1 run without Leonard and George, but they beat some uninspiring teams in the process (Cleveland and Miami). Overall, they have gone 4-3 since George’s injury, but all of their wins came against teams with losing records. They lost to the only two winning teams (Boston and Utah) they faced, and they also lost to Sacramento.
Jazz vs. Clippers Point Spread Trends
The momentum certainly isn’t in the Clippers’ favor for a win. That’s why we have spreads, however, and the Clippers have a 5-to-5.5-point handicap here. They would be 6-1 against that spread since George’s injury, as their losses to Sacramento and Boston stayed within six points.
However, the Utah Jazz are far superior to the 14-14 Celtics and the 12-16 Kings. They have NBA’s record — both straight-up and against the spread. In fact, their 22-7 ATS record trails their actual record by just two. No team comes close to Utah’s cover percentage (75.9%), as the next-best Suns (63%) are more than 10 percentage points behind. To be fair, the Clippers have been good against the spread, too, as their 17-13 ATS record ranks sixth.
I would still much rather have the Jazz here. Not only did they beat the Clippers by 18 on Wednesday, but also Los Angeles’ stars may need some time to shake off the rust.
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Jazz vs. Clippers Over/Under Trends
The trends don’t point to much value on the game total. The Clippers have the NBA’s fifth-highest over percentage (63.3%) despite playing at the league’s second-slowest pace, while the Jazz have the seventh-lowest over percentage (44.8%). They play slightly faster than the Clippers, as they rank fifth-slowest in pace. Since it’s a bit unclear as to whether the over or under is the preferable play here, I’ll use my projections model to push us toward a lean.
My NBA betting model, which uses data on possessions per game, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, expects a total of around 220.7 points. It also favors the Jazz by a 1.8-point margin, but I trust the trends more than the model for this one. Wednesday’s game ended with 210 points, so with totals set at 224.5, the value appears to be on the under.
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Jazz vs. Clippers NBA Betting Against the Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
The Jazz have a 5-point advantage at some books, so if you’re planning to target them against the spread, those are the books you should target. You can get them at close to even odds at William Hill. If you’re okay with adding a half-point, head over to BetMGM to get the Jazz at -5.5. If you prefer the Clippes here, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook for the best deal. You can get Los Angeles as 5.5-point underdogs at near-even juice at that book. You should expect these lines to move once we hear about Leonard and George, and you can follow any line movement directly through OddsShopper.
Jazz vs. Clippers NBA Betting Over/Under Picks + Odds Shopping
The trends and my projections point to some value on the under. If you’re interested in that line, head over to PointsBet to get the under on the only available total (224.5) at -105. Should you expect this game to be more high-scoring than that, head over to BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook or William Hill to get the over at -110. Again, these lines will move once we hear more about Leonard and George, so make sure to double-check OddsShopper to confirm that you’re getting the best deal.
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