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NHL Odds & Betting Picks: Canucks vs. Maple Leafs | Feb.4
This will be the 14th game for the Canucks tonight, the most of any team in the league. The season has been a rocky one for Vancouver as they enter with just six wins pinned against seven losses. The main issue behind their slow start has been defense. The Canucks have given up the most scoring chances by a wide margin thus far, and while they’ve played extra games compared to the other teams, they’re clearly giving up far too many quality chances every night. They also lead the league in shots against per game (36.3) by a whopping 2.6 shots. One bright spot has been the emergence of Thatcher Demko in net, who has posted three wins and two losses now in five starts but has shown true No. 1 upside, posting save percentages of .958 or better in each of his three wins. Vancouver is ninth in goals per game, but it hasn’t been enough to keep up so far, and they’ll need their power play to pick up from its ninth-worst ranking.
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The Maple Leafs will have a distinct rest advantage here. This game will mark the third in three nights for the Canucks, while the Leafs haven’t played now in four days. The Maple Leafs have played 10 games now and are 7-2-1. While the record looks nice the Leafs haven’t exactly been blowing teams out either as five of their wins have come by one goal, with one being on OT win over MTL on opening night. The Leafs haven’t, been as poor as the Canucks defensively, but it’s been close. They sit ninth in scoring chances allowed despite only having played in 10 games. To say the Leafs power play has been carrying them is an understatement. The Maple Leafs rank first in power-play efficiency, scoring at a 43% rate, and they have six players with 3 or more power-play points on their roster right now. It’s possible some ugly regression is due soon, although the Leafs could certainly help stem that tide by picking it up a little on the back end as well.
Best Bet: Vancouver Canucks Money Line +160 (FanDuel; DraftKings)
The Canucks are available at a pretty big discount here, and I kind of like taking advantage. The rest difference could be as much a detriment to the Leafs as it is to the Canucks, as the Vancouver was already out east in Montreal and were not deep enough into the season to see true fatigue yet in any of these squads. Four days off is also an eternity in NHL time, and how the Leafs come out of that break is anyone’s guess. Vancouver has been able to stay in games when they get good goaltending, and Demko (the likely starter in net) has already compiled more quality starts than poor ones. While the records here look a lot different in the standings, these two teams aren’t really that much different on paper. Both have a ton skill up front and are led by dynamic centers in Auston Matthews and Elias Pettersson, and both teams don’t seem to care much about limiting other teams scoring chances, preferring an up-and-down shootout over a defensive struggle most nights.
Lately the Leafs have been much better than the Canucks at that sort of fast-paced game, but Toronto’s 43% power-play rate isn’t going to last, and the Canucks — who ranked fourth in the NHL in power-play efficiency last year — are eventually going to pick things up in that area themselves. The line here is too heavy in the Leafs’ favor given how similar these two teams look, and given that Vancouver is in a bit of a must-win spot coming off two road losses. Taking the plus money on the Canucks feels like the correct long-term side to be on here to me.
Bonus: Hurricanes (-1.5) over Blackhawks Puck Line +146 (FanDuel)
The Hawks pushed the Hurricanes to overtime in the first game of this series but ultimately came out a loser in the shootout. Chicago likely ran as well as they possibly could in that first game, as the Hawks got 38 saves from their goalie, saw both of the Hurricanes’ best players in Dougie Hamilton and Sebastian Aho go pointless on the night and still couldn’t pick up the win. Chicago’s young team simply doesn’t match up well here, and after fighting hard for a point in the first meeting, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Carolina come away with a more dominant win in Game 2. This is a good spot to go after the bigger puckline NHL odds on a cover by Carolina.
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