This Thursday’s NBA slate features a five-game itinerary, including two matchups reminiscent of Western Conference playoff past. Looking at the betting lines across a variety of sportsbooks using the OddsShopper tool, we’ll look to player stats and rotations along with recent team trends to identify the best values available among NBA odds. Let’s get into some NBA betting picks, focusing on superstars Stephen Curry and Anthony Davis in the prop market.
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NBA Betting Picks: NBA Odds & Player Props | Feb. 4
NBA Pick: G Stephen Curry, OVER 5.5 Assists (+100, SugarHouse, BetMGM, & DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Warriors are playing some musical chairs in their post rotation, with Kevon Looney now absent with an ankle injury and James Wiseman still ailing a sprained wrist. With Draymond Green shifting over to center against a Mavericks team that is notoriously soft in the paint, Golden State will potentially be looking to exploit the weakness. Seeing point guard Stephen Curry with an assist player prop line of 5.5 and +100 odds on the over, we’ll look further into our chances at a solid investment sans house juice.
We’re all aware of the 3-point prowess of Curry, while his 6.6 assists per game for his career may not be as celebrated among NBA fans. Playing just beneath that average this season at 6.1 assists per game, Curry is still producing with a 31% assist rate in 2020-21. Notching 6 or more assists in 12 of his 20 games played this season, Curry has dished as many as 11 assists in one performance. In the nearly 20 minutes logged this season without Looney and Wiseman on the court, Curry averaged 9.18 assists per 36 minutes, further bolstering incentives on the favorable odds in place.
While the Mavericks are allowing just 7.5 assists per game to opposing point guards, Dallas has an established weakness in the post, where the Warriors will likely be looking to feed the ball whenever appropriate. Also as frame of reference, Dallas just surrendered 9 assists to Trae Young in their recent win against Atlanta. Getting even-money odds on Curry to bag his assist average of the season, along with the increased likelihood to be finding Draymond down low, makes for excellent value among Thursday’s NBA betting picks.
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NBA Pick: F Anthony Davis, OVER 8.5 Rebounds (+105, BetMGM & PointsBet)
The Lakers are happily back at home following a battle-tested, seven-game road trip, while the visiting Nuggets are playing their first game since Sunday after their Monday matchup with the Pistons was postponed due to COVID designations among Detroit players. Anthony Davis‘ line of 8.5 rebounds and +105 odds on the over is standing out on OddsShopper today. Seeing as that Davis’ rebounding has remained consistent with last season’s production, there’s considerable value to invest in.
With a rebounding rate up slightly from last season at 13.2% (from 13.1% 2019-20), Davis is actually averaging just beneath his 9.3 rebounds per game from the previous NBA year, pulling down an average of 8.7 boards this season. While this makes sense considering his average playing time is down by 1 minute (from 34.4 minutes per game to 33.1), his time on the court with LeBron James has a strong effect on his production. When he’s on the court with LeBron, Davis is averaging 9.9 rebounds per 36 minutes, while Davis’ average drops to 8.33 rebounds with James off the court.
In his past seven games played, Davis his season high in rebounds with 17 and one game with 14 boards. He is facing a Nuggets team that ranks 12th in rebounds per game with 45.1 on average and allows the fewest rebounds per game to opposing teams. As such, the task at hand appears to be daunting (adding reason to the +105 that was initially written). Denver is allowing 9.9 rebounds per game to opposing power forwards, yet Davis secured 9 and 10 rebounds in their last meeting during a five-game playoff series with mostly the same Nuggets team just last summer. Comprising 27.6% of his team’s rebounds this season, Davis has some of the best value for our NBA betting picks.
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