NBA Player Prop: Thursday's Best Bet | Bradley Beal Under 2.5 3-Pointers

NBA Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re finding the best bang for your NBA betting buck. Please enjoy our new, FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real-time. Check it out right HERE. Let’s get into the daily NBA betting Picks, including my favorite NBA player prop bet on Bradley Beal in the Wizards – Knicks game tonight.

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NBA Prop of the Day: Bradley Beal 3-Pointers | March 25

Today is the NBA trade deadline, which means buckle up for what is always an entertaining day. Some teams will be buyers hoping to make a move to get over the top, while others will cash in their chips and try to offload some assets to begin planning for the future. Besides the trades, there still is a five-game slate loaded with potential wagers. Let’s dive in and see what we have in the prop world, which gives us dozens of options in each game.

NBA Prop Bet: Bradley Beal Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-139) — DraftKings

The Wizards are 3-point dogs taking on the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. New York could be active around the deadline, but regardless, these are the games they need to win to find the postseason. On the prop side I’m going to the Washington side with Bradley Beal. His 3-pointers prop is 2.5 tonight, and despite his talent, I am willing to go under this number.

The Wizards are struggling, having won just two of their last 10 games, and Beal’s production has dropped off during this downturn. He is averaging 27.1 points per game in March, which is a far cry from the 36.7 he averaged during January. More importantly, his 3-point attempts per game have gone from 7.8 in January to 7.1 in February, now falling to 4.7 so far in March. This is a major drop-off and helps us in the prop tonight if he only attempts around 5 3’s in this spot. Volume is king when attacking props, as it can either give the players more room to succeed or create less room for error. With Beal’s attempts dropping, tonight we are dealing with the latter.

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The other thing to like about this prop is the Knicks’ 3-point defense, which has been fantastic all season. They are the best team in the league defending the long ball, allowing teams to just shoot 33.6% from beyond the arc. This is a key stat that I have been leaning on a lot this year, as teams are continuously struggling from deep when playing New York. I don’t see that changing here, and that is a huge asset in backing this under 2.5 3-pointers.

Price-wise the under is taking money and the -139 we are laying isn’t ideal. Still, we are comparing the juice against the rate of success and also the price across all the markets. Looking at several books, I see this prop upwards of -175, and by the time this game tips, I believe -139 will be long gone. Beal has made 3 or more 3-pointers in just two of his last nine games, and I don’t see that changing tonight. I will lay the juice and back the under here.

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Author

Ben Rasa

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].