In almost what feels like the Bizarro edition of the Monday Night Football matchup between the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens from earlier this week, the 0-3 Denver Broncos head into the Meadowlands to square off with the 0-3 New York Jets as we make NFL picks prior for Thursday Night Football. Featuring the 30th and 32nd-ranked offenses in the National Football League, we’re in for an outing for the ages.
All joking aside, when incorporating Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool in navigating NFL picks for Thursday Night Football (or any game for that matter), it makes the otherwise tedious process of sifting through the varying available betting lines from multiple sportsbooks far more convenient and appealing to manage. And regardless of the matchup, there are always going to be some value odds to wager on, though it’s just a matter of finding them each time.
In this Thursday Night Football matchup, we’ll see a first-time NFL quarterback in Brett Rypien take the field for the Denver Broncos against Sam Darnold‘s New York Jets, with one of these teams getting to walk away with a tally in the win column, potentially getting them on track for the remainder of the season (but not likely).
* NFL Odds as of writing. Click HERE for up to date odds using the OddsShopper tool.
Ben Rasa’s Bet of the Day
Awesemo’s sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day’s betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.
NFL Picks + Odds Shopping: Thursday Night Football Best Bets | Jets vs. Broncos
NFL Pick: Braxton Berrios: UNDER 41.5 Receiving Yards (-130 PointsBet)
As of recently, Jets wide receiver Braxton Berrios has become Darnold’s new favorite versatile weapon on the field. The ex-New England Patriot has 10 receptions in three games for an average of 41 yards per game, yet includes the variable of Week 1 where he didn’t have a reception, lowering his receiving average from what would actually be 61.5 yards per game if you drop that first game. The current value on the over is -110 at 40.5 receiving yards at BetMGM.
On the other hand, when you look further back into Week 1 and why Berrios was sans catches that game (since nobody really expects you to recall Jets box scores, of all teams), you’ll come upon another valuable piece of information that makes much more sense and ties it all together. In case you haven’t seen today’s NFL news, Jamison Crowder is officially playing in tonight’s Thursday Night Football match, and hehas been absent from action for Weeks 2 and 3, when Berrios finally saw a target.
Berrios predominantly lines up in either the left or right slot position (in snaps he’s involved with, just under 53% of plays), much like that of Crowder’s pre-snap alignment when healthy. Crowder, when he isn’t absent, is on field for 85.71% of the Jets snaps, which is a drastic boost from Berrios’ snap count outside of when filling Crowder’s shoes.
With all things considered above, by taking the reduced juice on the over in yardage prop, you’ll essentially be gambling on two separate events with one wager influenced by another undeclared:
- Will Berrios find himself in good enough graces to be on-field with a healthy Crowder ahead in target priority?
- Can he achieve two-thirds of his two-game receiving average with fewer snaps and targets?
Suddenly that reduced juice doesn’t seem like so much of a discount in reward. Until I see anything indicative of Berrios getting involved in snaps when Crowder is healthy and active, I will be all over this under at just slightly extra juice at PointsBet, while gaining a point in your favor from 40.5 to 41.5 receiving yards.
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NFL Pick: Melvin Gordon: OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115, SugarHouse & BetRivers)
While the Denver Broncos are rolling out their third-string quarterback Rypien for the first NFL start of his career, that’s not to say that he’ll be throwing the ball as often as Joe Burrow or anything resembling such. I suspect running back Melvin Gordon will be wearing the added burden of minimizing the rookie quarterback’s mistake capacity, and against the suspect run defense of New York there would be little reason not to.
While the proposition presents a yardage total just above Gordon’s 58 yards per game for the season, he will not just have the likelihood of an increased workload but will also stand to benefit from a slight blocking advantage by the Broncos offensive line over the Jets front seven. New York has allowed 114.66 rushing yards per game this season to opposing running backs, including three rushing touchdowns surrendered to the position.
With Phillip Lindsay once again listed questionable with a toe injury in tandem with a first-time quarterback in Rypien, Gordon should be getting the ball early and often, contributing to the keep-away mindset Denver figures to possess. And speaking of possession, one significant contributing factor to Gordon’s lackluster rushing totals for the season was the deficit in time of possession for the Broncos last Sunday against the Buccaneers, where they played from behind the entire length of the game and often by at least two scores. Gordon had no chance with the point differential staring him down, as he only carried the ball eight times versus Tampa Bay.
I think the time to shine for Gordon will be against this Jets rush defense on Thursday Night Football, as he will be a big part of protecting his inexperienced quarterback from playing mistake-prone football.
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