The fallout from losing Dak Prescott begins for the Dallas Cowboys after the quarterback suffered a gruesome season-ending ankle injury in Week 5 against the New York Giants. There’s a chance for Andy Dalton to exercise some of his previous seasons’ demons in this latest installment of Monday Night Football between the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals, where we’ll make our NFL picks using Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool.
The Cardinals are in the midst of getting their season anchored with more wins and living up to their hype on offense, winning their last game against an atrocious New York Jets team after dropping their two previous matchups with the Panthers and Lions. Will sophomore quarterback Kyler Murray and his shiny new 2020 weapon in DeAndre Hopkins throttle this lackluster Dallas secondary at Jerry World? Or will Prescott’s injury galvanize this Cowboys roster by shocking the world under Dalton’s game management? We’ll find out tonight as we seek to cash in some tickets on the best NFL bets available for Monday Night Football and using the Awesemo OddsShopper tool to help us find them.
* NFL Odds as of writing. Click HERE for up to date odds using the OddsShopper tool.
NFL Picks + Odds Shopping: Monday Night Football Best Bets | Cardinals vs. Cowboys
NFL Pick: RB Chase Edmonds, OVER 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115, PointsBet)
The Kliff Kingsbury Air Raid offense has had its share of success and scrutiny in just its second year of implementation in Arizona, though one of the pieces that has seen some big plays within it has been scat back Chase Edmonds. Dating back to last season, Edmonds has provided huge boosts through both the running game as well as in the receiving game, especially stepping up when players ahead on the depth chart totem pole have been out. And still, despite the addition of running back Kenyan Drake and moving David Johnson to Houston, Edmonds continues to produce as a versatile, talented safety net for Murray.
The proposition line for Edmonds’ receiving yardage total at 20.5 in tonight’s iteration of Monday Night Football is eye-catching given the proven consistency of his involvement in Cardinals passing downs. Looking back to last year, Edmonds averaged nearly nine yards per reception. Although, he scavenged just 12 receptions on 21 targets in a congested backfield that allowed him only 24% of Cardinals snaps. This season Edmonds has well surpassed his receiving totals from 2019 by accounting for 18 receptions and involved in 36.8% of Arizona’s offensive snaps. Edmonds, averaging 25.8 receiving yards per game, has averaged 7.2 yards per reception for 129 total receiving yards and two touchdowns through five games.
The third-year Cardinals multitool back has also seen 13.6% of Arizona’s total targets and slots in as the fourth-most targeted player by Murray this season. Facing a Dallas defense who’s proven among the stiffer opposition against running backs in the receiving game is a likely contributing factor to the softer line set by oddsmakers here. However, the Dallas secondary is among the bottom of the barrel in the NFL, which is a factor in play here. Despite spending 67.9% of his pre-snap time as a featured back in Cardinals passing downs, Edmonds also flexes out into the slot receiver role on 24.4% of his passing down snaps (32 of 131 snaps). The Cowboys are surrendering 9.55 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this season, and given his versatility, I can’t help but think Kingsbury will get Edmonds to break away from pre-snap position as the back on passing downs where he’s featured. At moderate -115 juice on PointsBet, the over on 20.5 receiving yards for Edmonds looks to be a very achievable play.
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NFL Pick: QB Andy Dalton, UNDER 292.5 Passing Yards (-115, PointsBet)
Prescott’s season ended sadly just a week ago, as he’s now beginning the road to recovery after a successful ankle surgery. This opens the door for Dalton to shine, following a nine-year stint in Cincinnati before the Joe Burrow era began for the Bengals. Not even Dalton likely believed his window of opportunity in a Cowboys uniform would’ve presented itself so early on, but like any backup quarterback, he’s trained to always be ready. Yet when combing through the available best bets for Monday Night Football using Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool, it’s rather surprising to see the passing yardage proposition set to the heights of 292.5 passing yards for Dalton.
To say Dalton won’t have the weapons would be utterly blasphemous, and certainly isn’t the case in consideration of CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup as his primary receiving corps. On the other hand, the Cowboys also have stud running back Ezekiel Elliott in tow. They are squaring off with a Cardinals defense that not only ranks among the top 10 against opposing quarterbacks (in regards to passing yards), but also rolls out a red carpet for Elliott as the 24th-ranked defense against opposing running backs by total rushing yards (534 rushing yards allowed on 119 carries).
Specifically looking at Dalton’s resume for yardage accomplishments, he’s never once averaged more than 269 passing yards per game for a season. While Dalton has thrown for 300 or more passing yards in a game 29 times in his career over 133 games started (21.8% of games started over 300 yards), I don’t believe Dalton’s role with this Dallas offense will feature him slinging the ball all over the field like his days in Cincinnati. With the focus catalyst on the Dallas offense shifting since Prescott’s injury a week ago, the lack of preseason preparation and overall involvement for Dalton with this Cowboys offense (by contrast to Elliott’s tenure and second-nature in this system) wouldn’t much lend to the theory that Dalton will be throwing early and often, or anything of the sort against an above-average Cardinals secondary.
If the wager is to your fancy, I would lock in the under on 292.5 passing yards at PointsBet as soon as possible before the late-morning line movement comes into play and drives the juice up and/or the yardage line down.
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