With NBA finished and MLB down to the World Series, we’re starting to finally feel sports pulling back a bit. I was hoping to have a big write-up of plays on Monday, but I think the best move is to just stick to the strongest spot. Full disclosure, I got these Monday Night Football NFL odds and bet these games a full week ago, playing Kansas City -3 and Dallas +3 — lines that’ve obviously moved a lot. I’ll do my best to try and start writing up plays like that in this article when I project some line movement, helping you guys to lock in NFL picks further in advanced, which is a great way to get value.
As for Monday’s prop, here’s a breakdown, as well as some help from OddsShopper on where to play the bet.
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Week 6 NFL Picks & Predictions | Monday Night Football Best Bets
Michael Gallup Receiving Yards: Over 41.5 (-115)
This one jumped out to me as soon as I scanned the board on Monday morning, and I think it’s worth a big play at this number. Through five games, Gallup’s averaging just shy of 70 yards per game and has gone for at least 50 receiving yards in four of those contests.
He’s getting discounted here because he doesn’t have Dak Prescott throwing him the ball anymore, but in a short sample, we saw a great connection with Andy Dalton. Dalton targeted Gallup three times after entering last Sunday’s win over the Giants, connecting on all three for 65 total yards. Two of those completions included huge plays with the game on the line, and Gallup was Dalton’s trusted target.
Just like we saw way too much of an over adjustment to the opening line of Dallas-3 — which we’ve seen bet to Dallas -1 — we’re seeing a discount on some Cowboy player props with Prescott out. Gallup’s feels to be the most egregiously underpriced on the group. He has huge-play potential, with a reception of at least 38 yards in three of his last four, including one from Dalton last week. It shouldn’t take much for him to get here, and it’s nice to have Gallup almost considered an afterthought behind Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb.
OddsShopper shows Sugar House, PointsBet and DraftKings all showing 41.5, but PointsBet has a slightly better price at -115. The other books are showing -118, so make sure you continue to scan for the best price. This one could move as kickoff approaches.
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