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Week 9 Thursday Night Football NFL Betting Picks + Odds Boosts To Watch | Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams | 11/5

Josh Walfish



NFL Best Bets Week 10 Monday Night Football Prop Bets + NFL betting Picks Bears Vikings

Odds boosts are exactly that: Promotions from sportsbooks where they move tin your favor on certain bets. Many of them are prop bets, hoping you’ll put a few dollars on someone to hit a home run or a certain team to score a certain number of goals and still win. Our job is to highlight some of those odds boosts and give you some NFL bets and picks to bet on, assuming it’s smart to buy into the NFL odds the sportsbooks are selling. We scour the internet trying to find the best odds boosts for you every day from every sport. With Thursday Night Football still on for tonight, let’s look at the matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers.

There was quite a bit of concern about the status of tonight’s Thursday Night Football game after a COVID spike in San Francisco, but the game is still on even if the 49ers are down most of their receivers. As a result there are very few San Francisco odds boosts on the market today, so this post shifts heavily in Green Bay’s favor. The Packers have a pair of players that sportsbooks love — quarterback Aaron Rodgers and receiver Davante Adams — so we will take a deep look at those two. We also have a game-specific odds boost that I picked out due to the situation at hand for this game. As always, you can find these bets and so many more on OddsShopper, Awesemo’s odds shopping tool.

Ben Rasa's Bet of the Day

Awesemo's sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day's betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.

Week 9 Thursday Night Football Odds Boosts + NFL Bets

NFL Betting Pick: Aaron Rodgers Scores 3+ Touchdowns (+240 PointsBet)

Depending on where you look, there’s a variety of odds on roughly this same wager at many sportsbooks. MGM is offering +230 odds on Rodgers to throw three touchdowns, but I liked how PointsBet also allowed Rodgers to run one in and get better odds. We know that Rodgers is a threat to run the ball into the end zone near the goal line when his receivers are covered, so getting that flexibility is very appealing in a game like this. San Francisco has allowed 250 passing yards or fewer in each of the last three weeks, but Russell Wilson did throw four touchdowns last week.

With Aaron Jones status in this game questionable and the Packers down most of their other running backs, even more will be expected from Rodgers’ arm today. He’s thrown for three or more touchdowns five times in seven games this year, and he’s third in the league in total touchdown passes with 20 this season. He has Adams back in the fold as a receiving threat, and tight end Robert Tonyan has emerged as another favorite target for Rodgers. Green Bay is the third-highest scoring offense in the NFL, and it has thrown the second-most touchdown passes per game. When the Packers score, it has tended to come through the air.

NFL Betting Pick: Davante Adams and Jerick McKinnon Score A Touchdown (+320 DraftKings)

Adams’ return to the field has been a major boon for the Packers’ offense. He’s caught five touchdowns over the last two weeks and he’s caught 26 total passes in the three games since he returned from injury. Adams caught a touchdown in each of his previous two regular-season matchups with the 49ers and that was against a far better defense than the 49ers possess now. I’m even tempted to say Adams will score the first touchdown of the game, which you can bet at +520 odds at FanDuel. It’s obvious Rodgers looks for Adams a lot, as Adams has double-digit targets in four of the five games he’s played this season. So, given how much I expect Green Bay to throw the ball tonight, I’d be shocked if Adams doesn’t score at least once.

On the other side of the ball, we know how porous Green Bay has been against the run the past few years. San Francisco won’t have their leading receiver in George Kittle due to injury, most of their receivers are out due to COVID-19 precautions, and they are starting Nick Mullens. It’s a perfect situation for a lot of running plays for the 49ers’ offense. Jerick McKinnon should see an increased role behind Jamycal Hasty today with San Francisco ravished by injuries in the backfield. But more importantly, McKinnon is the 49ers’ go-to option on the goal line with a pair of one-yard plunges among his four rushing touchdowns this season. McKinnon is also a better receiving option than Hasty, meaning he may see some value as a receiver on screen passes or other short passes against run blitzes.

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NFL Betting Pick: Packers Win 14+ Points (+260 FanDuel)

San Francisco has too many injuries on offense to make me believe it can keep up with Green Bay tonight. The 49ers are down their best three running backs for this game, they don’t have their starting quarterback, one of the best tight ends in the league and almost every receiver on the roster. Although San Francisco is at its best when it runs the football well and the Packers struggle to stop the run, it just doesn’t look to be enough. The 49ers ran the ball 22 times for just 52 yards last week and that was with the threat of a passing offense that just doesn’t seem to exist tonight.

Meanwhile, the Packers are an offensive juggernaut with one of the best quarterbacks in the game leading the charge. Green Bay just has more weapons on offense to score points than San Francisco, and Mullens just isn’t at the level to elevate his personnel like Rodgers has done all season. San Francisco’s defense has looked great against poor offenses, but it allowed 37 points to Seattle and 43 to Miami already this season. This sets up to be a game where the Packers will be able to score fairly easily, and the 49ers are going to struggle to keep up with that total.

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