Welcome to the Awesemo Expert Golf Betting Picks page for the 2021 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Awesemo’s golf betting experts have outlined their favorite bets of the week and located some of the best PGA betting odds and picks this week on BetMGM, PointsBet and more! We have loads of promo codes available if you are new to the world of sports betting.
PGA Odds & Expert Picks: WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
In this new weekly article, Awesemo’s golf experts will give their favorite PGA betting picks, odds, and predictions of the week for the 2021 WGC St. Jude Classic.
Ben Rasa’s Pick: Dustin Johnson
Outright: 20-1 (William Hill)
After a win at the Masters in November, it has not been the best 2021 season for Johnson. He has not looked like the world No. 1 and comes into this event off an extremely bad missed cut at the 3M Open. Even with this spotty recent form, it was shocking to see 20-1 in the outright market, especially at a non-cut event. This field is about half the size of a normal PGA event, and all players are guaranteed four rounds. His ability to flip the switch and immediately get into contention has me blindly backing him at 20-1 here.
The price merits the most interest, but do not overlook this as a course where Johnson has a pair of wins in his career. In 2018 he dominated the field en route to a 6-stroke victory at TPC Southwind. I am not calling for that level of dominance, but Johnson is great at 20-1, even with some of the disappointing results in recent weeks.
Geoff Ulrich’s Pick: Louis Oosthuizen and Sergio Garcia
Oosthuizen Outright: 20-1 | Garcia Top 10: +425 (PointsBet)
I have backed off chasing the Oosthuizen win, but it does feel like the door is about to come crashing down. He has now been in contention late Sunday in five of his last seven starts and certainly will not feel out of place after competing at majors. The spot here seems ripe for Oosthuizen after he came to this venue/event with almost no form last summer and promptly finished sixth. His putting and short game have been spectacular all year, but his long game is finally catching up, and he ranks third in strokes gained on approach in this elite field over the last 24 rounds. The price may not be overly generous, but the win is coming one way or another soon.
Garcia does not seem to have the confidence on the greens to grab a win in this field, but his ball striking is firing at an elite level. He gained 7.2 on approach alone in Minnesota and has finished top 25 in his last five starts. The small Bermuda greens should only increase his advantage on approach, giving him a great shot to pay off big top-10 odds this week.
Eric Lindquist’s Pick: Sam Burns
Outright: 80-1 | Top 5: +1300 (PointsBet)
Due to his stretch of unremarkable play since the Memorial, it is easy to forget that Burns was one of the hottest players on the PGA Tour up until June. In his past 11 events Burns has three top-threes, including a win at the Valspar, albeit with four missed cuts during that stretch as well. While this Jekyll/Hyde play might be frustrating to some for DFS purposes, his ability to spike massive weeks makes him an easier long shot to click on every time he tees it up. There is also no cut at this event, which means a guaranteed four rounds for him of putting on Bermuda, the grass type he went first/second on in the month of May. And considering the smaller greens on TPC Southwind, Burns gaining strokes on the approach in 10 of his past 12 tournaments is yet another sign pointing in his direction.
Jason Rouslin’s Pick: Scottie Scheffler
Outright: 30-1 (BetMGM)
Singling out WGC events, majors and the Memorial, Scheffler has not finished worse than 18th (the Masters), and he has three top-fives and three other top-10s in seven starts. That is a large part of why he has risen all the way into the top 20 in the world, even though he has not won yet. This could be it here, though, as he is one of the best drivers in the field. Blending accuracy and distance with the best of them, Scheffler needs to find a hot putter this week, and he will have a chance at a trip back to Maui.
Max Smotritskiy’s Pick: Shane Lowry
Outright: 50-1 (BetMGM)
Lowry has been in great form since about mid-March. That was when he turned a struggling iron game into one of the best on tour, gaining strokes on approach in nine straight events, and a strong iron game is paramount to succeeding at TPC Southwind. The course presents tiny greens and danger off the tee and on approach. Hitting greens translates to great success here, and even though Lowry has struggled putting on Bermuda grass in the past, projecting good putting weeks is an exercise in futility. At his current odds and run of good form, Lowry is a bargain play that can pay off huge this week.
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