Wild Card Saturday NFL Picks + NFL Odds Boosts To Watch | Josh Allen + D.K. Metcalf

There are few better ways to win money in the NFL playoffs than looking at the odds boosts from every sportsbook. Odds boosts are the wagers where sportsbooks shift the odds every so slightly in your favor on certain bets. In the postseason, that means plenty of chances to make some money on some those super specific prop bets. Due to limits, these aren’t going to be the huge moneymakers, but our job is to search the sportsbooks to find the best value for your betting buck. We scoured the internet to find you the best NFL odds, prop bets and NFL picks to wager on for this Wild Card Saturday. With three games and several big names to choose from, the NFL betting picks are tantalizing.

We’re going to highlight four different bets specifically, but we’ll touch on several others that might also entice you. In the first game of the day, we’re all over Josh Allen and this Buffalo Bills offense against the Indianapolis Colts, though we do have a play for the Colts offense as well. Then we’ll take a look at D.K. Metcalf’s role within the Seattle offense as the Seahawks play host to the Los Angeles Rams in the second game of the day. We’re going to avoid Tom Brady in the nightcap, and instead focus on the other quarterback in the game, focusing on what Alex Smith can do against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense.

[2021-New-Year-Promo]

[SportsbookAffiliates]

NFL Odds Boosts + Betting Picks: Wild Card Saturday

NFL Picks: Josh Allen 300+ Passing Yards & 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+320 FanDuel)

It doesn’t matter who Allen has around him as weapons it seems this season, he has found ways to be super productive over the final five weeks of the season. He threw for 300 yards three times in that span, and likely would have had a fourth if he played the second half against Miami after throwing for 224 yards in the first half. He’s thrown for three or more touchdowns three times in the last five weeks, including three scores in Week 17 against the Dolphins. And while he threw three touchdowns to Stefon Diggs in Week 16 against New England, he threw two to Isiaiah McKenzie and one to John Brown against Miami last week. Missing Cole Beasley did not slow down Allen last week and neither did missing Brown for an extended period with an ankle injury earlier this season.

This week, Allen faces an Indianapolis passing defense that has proven itself very vulnerable. The Colts allowed four straight quarterbacks to throw for 300 yards before holding Jacksonville to 230 passing yards last week. The Bills have so many weapons with which Allen can attack a secondary that the Colts could be in trouble to find ways to slow down Buffalo’s offense. Even Miami, which had the No. 1 scoring defense in the league entering Week 17, struggled to defend the Bills. The best chance Indianapolis has to keep Allen under 300 yards is to get good pressure on him, but this Buffalo offensive line has been fantastic in pass protection all year to give Allen the time to take deep shots against defenses.

DraftKings offers the intriguing wager on Allen to both throw for a touchdown and rush for a score in this game at +175 NFL odds. He’s accomplished that feat six times this season, most recently in Week 15 against the Broncos, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility. However, the Colts are going to try to keep Allen in the pocket at all costs and Allen has just the two rushing touchdowns against Denver over the last five weeks. So unless Buffalo is able to get a quarterback sneak on the goal line or Allen finds the corner because of excellent coverage in the red zone, it’s unlikely Allen has the chance to run for a touchdown this week.

NFL Picks: Jonathan Taylor Scores Touchdown (+115 PointsBet)

A lot is going to be made about Buffalo ranking as the 17th-best rushing defense in the league this year, and there is a modicum of truth to that. The Bills were certainly vulnerable to the running game before their bye, but in the last six games, they really clamped down against the run. More importantly, Buffalo actually succeeded when it committed to stopping the run, like when the Bills held Derrick Henry to 57 yards on 19 carries this season. The Buffalo defense of the last six weeks is going to be a handful for this Colts offense that relies so heavily on Taylor and the rushing game to set up Philip Rivers’ passing attack. Which is exactly why we chose this bet.

This bet doesn’t require Taylor to hit a certain yardage threshold, just reach the end zone, and that seems very doable against this Bills defense. Buffalo was actually quite poor at stopping teams from running for touchdowns and ranked 27th in rushing touchdowns allowed. The Colts are going to put together a drive or two, and if they can reach the red zone, Taylor might be able to squeeze in a touchdown. It will be tough for Taylor to reach 100 yards rushing in this game, but if the Colts stay patient on offense and protect Rivers, Taylor might have his chance to pick up a short touchdown run in this game.

NFL Picks: D.K. Metcalf 80+ Receiving Yards (+200 PointsBet)

On the face of it, this seems like a terrible bet given the recent lackluster performances from the Seattle offense. Metcalf has been held under 80 yards receiving in four straight games and he has caught just one touchdown in the last six games. The Rams are the top-ranked passing defense in the league and held Metcalf to eight catches on 12 targets for 87 yards across two games this season. It seems ridiculous to think Metcalf will have success in that environment against a team that has held five straight opponents to less than 200 yards passing.

However, what we saw in the Week 16 matchup with the Rams was Seattle finding ways to get the ball into the hand of its playmaker anyway possible. Six of his eight catches against the Rams this season came just two weeks ago in the game in Seattle, and the Seahawks have targeted Metcalf more often over the last six weeks to try to get him going. There is going to be a lot of pressure on the Rams defense given the uncertainty of who will play quarterback, and as the Seahawks keep Los Angeles’ defense on the field more often, the Rams will tire. That might be the crack Metcalf needs to keep the chains moving and rack up some important yardage for the Seahawks.

There are other odds boosts around Metcalf, but both require him to score a touchdown. FanDuel is offering +900 odds that Metcalf will score the first touchdown of the game while DraftKings requires Metcalf to score a touchdown and pick up at least 61 receiving yards for its wager at +340 NFL odds. Although the lower yardage total is appealing, the touchdown part might be difficult given Metcalf’s struggles to find the end zone even with eight or nine targets per game.

NFL Picks: Alex Smith 2+ Passing Touchdowns (+110 PointsBet)

We are avoiding Brady in the final game of the day for one big reason, the Washington defense. Washington’s pass rush will have an effect on the Buccaneers offense, which has struggled to protect Brady against the better defensive lines in the NFL. The Football Team had the second-best passing defense in the league this year and only allowed two teams to throw for 300 yards this season. Brady also struggled against the other teams he faced in the top quarter of passing defenses in the NFL. In four games against those eight teams, Brady completed just 59 percent of his passes for an average of 207.5 yards per game with his highest total being the 239 yards he had to open the season against the Saints. So odds boosts for Brady to throw for 300 yards or three passing touchdowns against the Washington defense seems farfetched, no matter how well Brady has played the last few weeks.

Instead, we focus on Smith and the Washington offense at home against the Tampa Bay defense. It is clear that the Football Team would prefer to run the ball and use the rushing attack to control the clock against Brady and the Buccaneers. But Tampa Bay was the No. 1 rushing defense in the league and ranked 21st against the pass, so Smith is going to have to use his arm to attack this defense. He has receiver Terry McLaurin and tight end Logan Thomas as options to attack Tampa Bay’s weakness, but Washington also uses the running backs out of the backfield very efficiently. Smith still has the arm strength to punish the Buccaneers down the field with McLaurin if they put too many people in the box, and Thomas is a big red zone receiving threat to take advantage of stacked boxes.


Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Check out the AwesemoOdds home page for more sports betting content, including more NFL odds, picks and predictions.

Author

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.