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Can Felix Auger-Aliassime +260 Upset Alexander Zverev? 2021 Wimbledon Round of 16 Odds & Picks

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After a few days of rain delays, the final rounds of Wimbledon are finally set to begin. Here we will look ahead to the best tennis betting picks and odds for the Round of 16 at Wimbledon.

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Tournament Recap

Despite the fact that there are only five single-digit seeds remaining on the WTA side, it feels like this tournament has been much chalkier than the French Open. The tournament favorite, Ashleigh Barty, has rolled through her portion of the draw and is now statistically the overwhelming favorite to claim her first Wimbledon title. The model gives her a 51% chance of winning the title. Her next test is the surprise champion at Roland Garros, Barbora Krejcikova. Arguably the best story of the entire tournament on both sides has been the play of 18-year-old Emma Raducanu. She has picked up the first three main-draw wins of her entire career in this tournament and has an excellent chance of advancing past Ajla Tomljanovic to (probably) face Barty in the quarterfinals. On the bottom half of the bracket there are still three single-digit seeds in Karolina PliskovaIga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka. None of these three are as big of favorites to advance to the finals; this half of the bracket is about as even as it gets.

The ATP side has, unsurprisingly, seen this tournament play to chalk with the exception of Frances Tiafoe upsetting Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first round. The play of Sebastian Korda has been a nice story, and there could be a surprise finalist in the bottom half of the bracket, but as every round progresses it seems to be increasingly unlikely that anyone will be able to challenge Novak Djokovic for the title.

Wimbledon Round of 16 Tennis Betting Picks

Check out updated Wimbledon tournament projections through Round 3.

Iga Swiatek – Ons Jabeur

It has been quite the couple weeks for Swiatek. Two weeks ago she was clearly very emotional on the bench after winning her first (senior level) match ever on grass against Heather Watson, and now she has made it through three matches at Wimbledon without dropping a set. Jabeur has put up an excellent grass court season, with her only loss coming in a close three-setter to Jelena Ostapenko. The model seems to disagree, but the winner of this match should be the favorite to advance to the final.

Felix Auger Aliassime – Alexander Zverev

After losing the first set 6-1 to Nick Kyrgios, Auger Aliassime was fortunate to advance out of the previous round due to Kyrgios picking up an injury in the second set. He now faces Alexander Zverev, who looked pretty wobbly himself in his match against Taylor Fritz. Zverev is 3-0 against Auger-Aliassime (all on hardcourts) and hasn’t dropped a set, so he is certainly the favorite to win here. That said, Auger Aliassime’s serve and forehand always give him a chance, especially on this surface.


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Aryna Sabalenka – Elena Rybakina

This match will feature the biggest hitting of any match in this round. Rybakina is another player who has had an excellent grass court season, and she looks like a real threat to win this major. The biggest question from this match is, simply, which version of each player will show up? The level of these two can vary wildly from day to day, and sometimes even set to set.

Round 3 Tennis Betting Picks

Check out updated Wimbledon tournament projections through Round 3.

Roberto Bautista-Agut (+120)

It is unclear why Denis Shapovalov is listed as a -140 favorite in this matchup. Yes, he did just dominate Andy Murray over three sets in the third round. However, what version of Murray was that? He just barely avoided getting upset by Oscar Otte over five grueling sets and gave up a 5-0 lead in the third set against Nikoloz Basilashvili before rallying in the fourth set. There is definitely a fatigue angle here with Shapovalov cruising against Murray and getting a walkover in the previous round, yet it is impossible pass up Bautista-Agut’s resume on grass.

Sebastian Korda (-105)

For a long time American men’s tennis has been searching for the next major-level player, and they may have found him with Korda. Karen Khachanov has been searching for his form of the last couple years, and he does not seem to have found it in this tournament.

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Elena Rybakina (+138)

The model’s numbers have Rybakina as roughly a -160 favorite. Practically speaking this is more of a pure pick-’em, but either way the underdog is the better play.

Karolina Muchova -2.5 Games

Paula Badosa was not expected to advance this far. Her game does not fit this surface well, and her three victories in this tournament have not been impressive. Muchova’s game does fit grass well, however. She has a solid, accurate serve and has the full repertoire of groundstrokes and slices to both keep points alive and hit winners. The model makes Muchova a solid -240 favorite on this surface.


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Blaine Jungwirth contributes expert tennis and data analysis to Awesemo.com. Blaine's work in quantifying fantasy production in tennis is amongst the tops in the industry and his tennis projections are a must-have for any fan of the emerging field of tennis DFS. You can contact Blaine by emailing [email protected].

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