I’ve taken some time off from betting the World Series, but do have some angles that I’m going to play for tonight’s World Series Game 6. Using the help of OddsShopper to locate the best plays and prices, let’s analyze some MLB picks.
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World Series Game 6 MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: First-Five Innings Over 4.5 (-105)
After four straight overs to begin the World Series, we finally saw an under cash in Game 5, although all six runs did come in the first five innings, cashing the first-five over. Blake Snell looked terrific in a Game 2 win in this series, but he came undone a little in the fifth inning, and I think that carries into Game 6. Outside of Mookie Betts, who hits Snell well, none of the Dodger bats had more than a couple plate appearances against him. Now the Dodgers have seen him up close and should have a chance to improve against the ace — much like they did to Braves’ pitching late in the NLCS. The bats finally got to Snell in the fifth inning, scoring two runs off him and getting him yanked. Look for a hot start this time around.
Then there’s Tony Gonsolin, who only got four outs in his Game 2 start but gave up a homer in the first inning. The Dodgers are hoping to get five innings out of him this time around, but Gonsolin enters the massive Game 6 stage with a 9.39 ERA in the postseason. I’d say it’s pretty unlikely he will last long, and if the Dodgers try to keep him out there longer than he should be, it won’t end well. Los Angeles lost Gonsolin’s last start, and the bullpen gave up five runs after his departure. While the Dodgers have a great pen, it’s tough to ask for that many innings. We saw seven runs in the first five innings of this pitching matchup in Game 2, and that was with Snell pitching to his ceiling.
OddsShopper shows us this game total at 8 pretty much across the board and only a few cents of juice difference from book-to-book. You’ll probably want to do your own shopping for a first-five price.
MLB Pick: Run Scored in First Inning: Yes (+110)
Not much analysis is needed here, as this play goes hand in hand with an over. I expect runs early, just as we’ve seen all series — runs have been scored in the first inning each of the last four games. Gonsolin gave one up the last time in this matchup, and Snell surrendered a first inning run in two of his last three playoff starts prior to the World Series. The second time around for the order against both of these guys should be an advantage for the hitters.
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