PGA DFS: WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Picks & Predictions

Once a year the World Golf Championships give us one of the best PGA DFS formats. The Match Play event creates unique opportunities to maximize lineups and gain an edge over people that aren’t willing to put in the work. Over 20% of the lineups were dead last year before first tee — the industry defined dead as “Teams that had no chance of getting four golfers to make the final four.” To help and assist in guiding you to making the most optimal lineup, I will go quadrant by quadrant and give out my bracket and my allocations to each golfer for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Breakdown

Quadrant 1

PGA DFS Picks WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play DraftKings and FanDuel

Group 1

Dustin Johnson is the clear favorite here, but oddsmakers seem to give Robert MacIntyre a better chance than Matt Wallace at getting out of his group. As such, I will give him a bit of a higher share than the projected average while fading Adam Long. Kevin Na is sneaky but is coming off of a withdraw, so buyer beware.

Group 16

On paper it seems like Sungjae Im should be closer to 2-1 instead of the 1.7-1 given to him. I think that’ll bump up ownership a bit, and the same goes for Russell Henley, so I will short them and go a little overweight on both Marc Leishman and Victor Perez.

Group 8

This is one where I feel like, given the recent form, Sergio Garcia should be favored, but he’s not. I will take the leverage there and fade Tyrrell Hatton. Lee Westwood is intriguing, but I think the run is done until Augusta, while Matt Wallace is a bit of a wild card.

Group 9

Paul Casey is in such good form that Webb Simpson is going to have to get crazy hot with the putter to beat him. I don’t think Talor Gooch or Mackenzie Hughes can keep up with the other two. I will go heavy on Casey and hedge those shares by about a third with Simpson shares.

Sweet 16 Matchups

Paul Casey defeats Sergio Garcia

Victor Perez defeats Dustin Johnson

Elite 8 Matchup

Paul Casey defats Victor Perez

Quadrant 2

PGA DFS Picks WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play DraftKings and FanDuel

Group 4

This is a tough draw for first-time participant Collin Morikawa. Max Homa is in the middle of a breakout season, and Billy Horschel was given some of the better odds to win the group as a low-priced golfer. Throw in J.T. Poston, who can get incredibly hot with the putter, and it’s a tough draw. That will lead to lower ownership on Morikawa, so I will leverage him, short Horschel, match with Homa and go a bit overweight with Poston.

Group 13

We get another two-golfer group here, as Viktor Hovland and Abraham Ancer are in much better form than Kevin Streelman and Bernd Wiesberger. That is not a knock on the former, but I’m quite high on both Hovland and Ancer. I will give each of them a somewhat equal share this week and play to get either of them matched up with Bryson DeChambeau in the Elite 8 matchup.

Group 5

For some reason, DeChambeau is not betting better odds to get out of this group than Johnson is for his group, while the talent levels of the two pods seem to be similar. I will take that and leverage DeChambeau the most this week with about 40% of my lineups.

Group 12

This is one of the more wide-open groups, and it is one of very few where I am getting more ownership of everyone else in the group over the A player Tony Finau. Both Will Zalatoris and Jason Kokrak can keep up with Finau in the ball-striking department, and both are better putters. Dylan Frittelli happens to have played here quite a bit since he went to Texas, so that little home-court advantage is enough to get 5 to 6% this week.

Sweet 16 Matchups

Viktor Hovland defeats Collin Morikawa

Bryson DeChambeau defeats Will Zalatoris

Elite 8 Matchup

Bryson DeChambeau defeats Viktor Hovland

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Quadrant 3

Groups 2 & 15

This is most definitely the hardest section of the bracket; both Groups 2 and 15 are very tough. Seven players can get out of the groups given recent form and history here at this course, leaving only Matthew Wolff as the oddball. These are the two toughest to peg, but a best-buddy matchup between Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas would be good TV.

Group 7

Here we have another group that is a bit wide open, and the other group where I have more ownership of a player that isn’t the favorite. The way the salary breaks out, Joaquin Niemann, Bubba Watson and Christiaan Bezuidenhout all provide value at their prices, while Patrick Reed looks a bit overpriced based on his odds to get out of the group.

Group 10

Patrick Cantlay, on the other hand, has a rather good draw if he can get by Brian Harman. I will go overweight the field on both of them, looking for a dream of a matchup in the Elite 8 of Spieth against Cantlay or Spieth against Harman.

Sweet 16 Matchups

Jordan Spieth defeats Justin Thomas

Patrick Cantlay defeats Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Elite 8 Matchup

Jordan Spieth defeats Patrick Cantlay

Quadrant 4

Group 3

Teammates the last Zurich Classic, Jon Rahm and Ryan Palmer, will face off here in Group 3. Whoever wins this match will likely be the group’s winner, and I will lean Rahm every time.

Group 14

This is the weakest group of all, and I think the two bottom guys are just as likely to move on than the top two. I will give my highest ownerships to both Brendon Todd and Erik van Rooyen.

Group 6

Xander Schauffele is out of form and draws a really tough group with Jason Day and Scottie Scheffler. Sure, Andy Sullivan may be an easier match; the other two, given their recent forms and course forms, will be very tough. I will leverage both Day and Scheffler and fade Schauffele this week.

Group 11

Rory McIlroy’s game may be in a bit of flux, having just started working with a new coach in Peter Cowen for the first time. That may take a bit to kick in, but in match play he can hide some inefficient play. Still, it may be a good spot for an underdog to get through, and Cameron Smith is playing well. Lanto Griffin could be sneaky, and Ian Poulter always comes to compete in match-play events.

Sweet 16 Matchups

Jon Rahm defeats Brendon Todd

Jason Day defeats Cameron Smith

Elite 8 Matchup

Jon Rahm defeats Jason Day

Final Four

Bryson DeChambeau defeats Paul Casey

Jon Rahm defeats Jordan Spieth

Finals

Bryson DeChambeau defeats Jon Rahm

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Author

Jason Rouslin

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].