Above the Cut: PGA DFS Picks for the 2020 Mayakoba Classic (Premium)

It’s been a long PGA Tour season for a variety of reasons, but we arrive at the final stop of the 2020 calendar. Although golf is a little different than most sports in terms of when their seasons start and end, this will be the final tournament of the year. We head to Mexico for the Mayakoba Golf Classic, and this is a regular stop of the tour every year. We get a number of big names choosing to tee it up and plenty of guys that will be looking to end this year with some momentum. Let’s break down the players in the field, and find the best PGA DFS picks to plug into our daily fantasy golf lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel this week.

Mayakoba PGA DFS Preview

The Course

Players will be battling it out at El Camaleon Golf Club in Playa Del Carmen, a venue which has been the host of this tourney since it began in 2007. This course is a short hitter’s dream, a par-71 (three par 5’s) layout just under 7,000 yards that mitigates the advantage the bombers usually have. Players will be clubbing down because spraying it at this place will lead them into an actual jungle, and there are other areas where they are going to be making some gigantic numbers. The risk/reward is not there to take the driver out much.

If they can keep it in the fairways, that should lead to a ton of greens hit, as the approaches are not overly difficult into these seashore paspalum greens. The winning score seems to be in the range of -15 to -20 looking over the last few years, so we want those guys who can make some birdies. We should also look for players who are accurate off the tee, and as I said earlier, avoid the guys who spray. Putting is always erratic, but we are going to need birdies, so a guy with some upside with the flat stick isn’t the worst thing.

The Field

We have 132 golfers in attendance here, and field strength is middle of the road. It is not as weak as some of the swing-season events, but it doesn’t measure up to the bigger events that draw the majority of the top-ranked golfers in the world. Pricing gets started with tournament favorite Justin Thomas, followed by Brooks Koepka and Tony Finau as the top three options.

As we work down, it’s is a classic swing-season field where there are a ton of guys looking for a career finish and a chance to anchor their season with a quality showing. The FedEx Cup points earned here can go a long way to trying to keep status or a card later in 2021 when we get down to playoff time. Don’t be afraid to target some of those players with less experience, as this is the type of event where we could see some new faces in the mix come Sunday.

Mayakoba Classic PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel

Quick Targets

Top-Priced

Justin Thomas $11.4k DraftKings, $12.6k FanDuel 

I am not breaking any news here, as Justin Thomas is the betting favorite and easily the man to beat in this field. His combination of ability to win going away and reliability to find the weekend is going to result in massive ownership, but it is warranted. He comes in off a fourth-place finish at The Masters, and he has finished inside the top 10 in four of his last five events.

Thomas gains strokes across the board, which isn’t surprising considering he is one of the best players in the world. He hasn’t lost strokes tee to green in any event since February, and besides the ownership, there isn’t anything to not like about this situation. You can firmly play him in all formats, but also keep in mind you will need to leverage elsewhere to be unique if this is where you start.

Corey Conners $9k DraftKings, $10.8k FanDuel

One of the more impressive stretches in recent weeks has been the play of Corey Conners, who finds himself at a flat 9k price tag on DraftKings. He has made six straight cuts, including back-to-back 10th-place finishes at The Masters and the RSM Classic. Conners is a pure ball striker who is a threat to find the winner’s circle any time the putter cooperates, which is what we are hoping happens here at Mayakoba. He has gained four strokes tee to green in four of the last five events we have shots gained data, and that type of form cannot be ignored. A course like this should allow him to lean on the irons, and if the putter clicks, this is a guy we are going to want exposure to in this field.

Also Considering – Joaquin Niemann

Mid-Range Fantasy Golf Picks

Brian Harman $8.4k DraftKings, $7k FanDuel

The low-$8,000 range has a few interesting names, and I plan to heavily attack them this week. Brian Harman comes in off a missed cut at RSM, which broke a streak of 11 straight events where he managed to find the weekend. We never like to see the missed cut, but the form wasn’t overly concerning — he just didn’t make enough putts. He still is a quality putter, and a short course like this will take pressure off him in terms of what he needs to do off the tee. Harman hasn’t had much success here at Mayakoba in recent years with nothing better than a 40th since 2014, but I see no reason this course shouldn’t suit his game overall.

I also want to point out that Harman is the minimum salary over on FanDuel, which is just a flat-out misprice. He will certainly be popular over there, but he is a must-play in cash and a tough fade considering the combinations you can build around him due to that price tag.

Emiliano Grillo $8.3k DraftKings, $9.9k FanDuel

Emiliano Grillo may win the award for most appearances in 2020, but that speaks to how steady his play is. It is true that the upside is limited with a guy who rarely contends, as his putting is just not to a level that can keep him in the mix most weeks. However, his ball striking is world class, and that is why Grillo has made nine of his last 10 cuts on tour. There aren’t many players in the field who can say that, and at a mid-range price, he stands out for that type of reliability.

It is always nice to see a player who is finding weekends consistently, but the course fit here is equally as exciting for Grillo. He will not need to be aggressive off the tee and can lean on the irons, which he has done in the past at this event. Grillo is 4-for-4 in made cuts at Mayakoba and was inside the top 20 in the last three appearances, so he has flashed some upside at this track before. I like him in both cash and GPP settings this week, and he fits a ton of different fantasy golf lineup constructions.

Also Considering – Aaron Wise, Scott Piercy

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Lower-Priced Fantasy Golf Picks

Doug Ghim $7.4k DraftKings, $9.4k FanDuel

We talk often about how quickly expectations rise for newcomers on tour, especially ones with amateur pedigree. Guys like Collin Morikawa and Matthew Wolff have raised the bar, as they were able to transition immediately to contending in majors. That’s not the path for everyone, as Doug Ghim has taken longer to find a foothold on tour, but that doesn’t mean we should just write him off.

Ghim started 2020 with four straight missed cuts and through the summer really wasn’t showing much to get excited about. However he started to find his form during this swing season and now comes in having made four of five cuts, with all the finishes inside the top 25. The irons have been positive in each start and the price isn’t reflective of this form that he comes into this event with. With the price being so reasonable, the ownership is going to follow, so keep that in mind when building rosters. Still, this is another player who has both cash and GPP viability, and we have to take notice that Ghim is possibly turning a corner as a PGA DFS pick.

Wesley Bryan $6.6k DraftKings, $8k FanDuel

If we pay up for Thomas and another top-end player, then we are going to need a few salary savers to fill out our lineups. Fortunately this tournament is littered with quality spend-down options, even if we are incurring some additional missed-cut equity. One guy sitting in the mid-$6,000 range is Wesley Bryan, who not that long ago was massive chalk at a higher price point in a spot similar to this in Bermuda. At that event, he did not get the job done with a missed cut that burned a ton of people and sent his price back down below $7,000.

Bryan cannot compete at longer tracks, as his off-tee game is weak. He won at Heritage, has Top-10s at Honda and Valspar and generally excels at courses similar to what he will see here. It’s a simple path for him: He needs to just be average off the tee and lean on the combination of irons and putting, which is the strength of his game. Injuries derailed his career in previous years, but all signs are that he’s healthy, and this price just simply is too cheap. It is not to say there isn’t risk, but I’ll gladly back a guy who has show the talent. If he limits the exposure off the tee, Bryan should be in line to return fantasy golf value at a dirt-cheap price tag.

Also Considering – J.J. Spaun, Charley Hoffman


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Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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