Happy New Year everyone, hope your 2020 is off to a great start! In addition to us turning the page on 2019 the start of the new year means that golf is back after an incredibly short offseason. For anyone that is potentially trying out golf for the first time or a new Awesemo member, WELCOME!
I sincerely hope that you give DFS golf a shot because to me, there is no better sport to sweat or enjoy from a Fantasy perspective.
This tournament is just a little appetizer of what’s to come during the year, but I will still breakdown what we are dealing with this Thursday.
The big thing to know is that this tournament field is comprised of past winners from the previous year, so we only have around 35 golfers to choose from.
This is also a non-cut format which means that every single golfer will be playing all 4 rounds which isn’t the typical format we see when it’s a full field event.
The Course
This week players will be teeing it up at a resort course called The Plantation course at Kapalua, which has served as the host for this opening event for many years now. Hawaii is never a bad place to get the year kicked off, and immediately the thing that stands out about this course is that it’s a par 73 measuring out around 7500 yards depending on the layout. A par 73 is something we really don’t see much if ever during the year, but this isn’t a tough test, and the scores will be low.
Looking over the course history we see that we are dealing with generous fairways and this means many players will be aggressive off the tee, leading to a bunch of wedge opportunities. Around the green and the greens themselves are a little unique in terms of slope and some awkward shots, but again this isn’t a tough test for the players and I don’t expect many blowup numbers.
The biggest defense this course does have is wind, and it does look like a possibly windy week to deal with. I still do not think it will impact scoring to an extreme, but it is something to be aware of as this coastal track has been impacted before by windy conditions. Keep an eye out for weather updates as the week goes on, as that can impact some decisions depending on what we are seeing as Thursday draws closer.
Bombers certainly have the advantage here and driving distance will be referenced a lot leading up till lock. In terms of other stats that I’ll focus on it will be Par 5 scoring, Birdie or Better % and trying to find guys who have that ability to go low since this is a non-cut and volatility isn’t a huge problem in a week like this. Its early in the season so a lot will have to just be inferred from long term form or even some spotty recent form, which can make it a little difficult to gauge.
** Don’t forget to check out the daily shows throughout the week where we touch on various topics from Sports Betting, Week in Review, and plenty of PGA tour golf breakdowns. You can find all my shows during the week on the Awesemo.com YouTube homepage. **
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The Field
We have a field of 34 PGA Tour Winners making the trip to the Island of Maui. We have a few of them missing, like Tiger Woods & Rory McIlroy, but we’ve still got a great field including half of the top 10 in the world. Dustin Johnson has a great history here at the Tournament of Champions, using his distance off the tee to his advantage, and Justin Thomas & Jon Rahm lead off the pricing this week. The other two big names in terms of the expensive price tags are Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay so we have plenty of talent to start out lineups with. As we work down there are winners of various pedigree and we have a bunch of guys who are playing this event for the first time.
Quick Targets
Top Priced
Justin Thomas $11.2k DraftKings, $11.9k FanDuel Â
I was pretty surprised to see Rahm priced slightly above JT, and although they are close I think Justin Thomas should be considered the favorite here. He won this event in 2017, is coming off a quality showing at the Presidents Cup and has the game to take apart this course. Since this is a no cut, we know we are getting four rounds and his scoring abilities give him so much upside even if he starts slow in Round 1.
JT seems fully healthy after he dealt with a nagging wrist injury in 2019 and his expectations have to be thru the roof for this 2020 season. He is on many peoples list to add another major and although this isn’t a defining tournament it’s still important to get off to a good start. With only 35 golfers ownership will be inflated throughout, but JT is as safe as they come this week.
Gary Woodland $9.3k DraftKings, $10.4k FanDuel
Woodland is in the next tier of pricing after the top end talents, but he projects as one of the most popular plays of the week. He is a bomber who was runner up here last year and the way he can lean on the driver it is hard to imagine him not racking up the birdies.
Woodland also played recently in the Presidents cup and that at least is some real-life reps as opposed to some of these guys who are coming off a long layoff. With the pricing he can easily be your second man though please note that pairing him with JT or Rahm will be a very common build in large field tournies.
Mid-Range
Joaquin Niemann $8k DraftKings, $9.5k FanDuel
One of the many first timers here, as Niemann was able to punch his ticket with a win at the Greenbrier at the beginning of swing season. It was just a matter of time and given how young Niemann is it’s hard to imagine he doesn’t play this event in many years to come. We last saw the Chilean at the Presidents cup where he struggled, but just getting that experience on a big stage will pay dividends going forward.
In terms of the course fit it’s a place where he won’t need to worry about his lack of scrambling and his ball striking can carry him to success. I do think having played the course is useful, but as guys have shown previously it is very possible to hit the ground running in your first start at Kapalua.
The no-cut format also benefits Niemann as he can really score and we all know that outscoring your placement is a huge factor when playing these small field events.
Matthew Wolff $7.9k DraftKings, $9.1k FanDuel
The next way of talented guys burst on to the scene late last year with Wolff, Colin Morikawa, and Viktor Hovland all being serious threats to win anytime they are in the field. Hovland may be the best of the three, but he isn’t here as he still hasn’t broken thru for that first career victory. It is just a matter of time and Wolff and Morikawa will get their first crack at this course and the ToC field.
Wolff has a Jim Furyk like swing, but he crushes the ball and the Oklahoma State product clearly has what it takes to be a force in 2020. We have a limited sample size in terms of strokes gained data, but so far Wolff doesn’t have a glaring weakness and should be able to lean on the driver here. He is another pure scorer and like Niemann is very live to outscore his placement in an event like this.
Wolff was pretty quiet during swing season but coming in fresh I will look to buy here before the price starts to adjust after a quick start.
Lower Priced
Dylan Frittelli $7.3k DraftKings, $8.6k FanDuel
Another first timer as the South African broke thru in his first PGA tour season after some impressive showings over in Europe. The JDC was where Frittelli punched his ticket to this event and he rode an incredible short game to that victory. Frittelli is a favorite of mine and its mostly due to his ability to get hot with any part of his game. He is a quality driver of the ball, but sometimes cannot miss with the irons or on the greens and that create a lot of boom bust to his game.
Obviously when you aren’t consistent you also have a ton of risk in rostering a guy like Frittelli, but the non-cut mitigates that concern. He is priced in the mid-range which is expected when you consider some of the big names up top, but this is still a guy I think can get in the mix.
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