⛳ Above the Cut: PGA DFS Picks for The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (FREE)

There is an interesting golf week ahead with the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play tournament on deck for this week’s event, which is going to make for a whole new style of tilt fest — the slate locks Wednesday morning. There is also a Korn Ferry-level field in the Dominican Republic, so this is a jam-packed week for the PGA Tour. I will be focusing on the Match Play event with a March Madness-style bracket ready to be discussed and a ton of money up for grabs. We haven’t seen this event since 2019 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and I am excited to have it back on the schedule. Let’s break down some of the best DraftKings and FanDuel PGA DFS picks.

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The Course

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play is at Austin Country Club, which is a par 71 measuring around 7,100 yards, placing it on the shorter side of the spectrum. Kevin Kisner is the defending champ, and he was able to attack with his ball striking and elite putting, although several different types of players can succeed here. Wind always can be a factor in Texas, so keep an eye on it, though it is difficult to really get an accurate read on it for a five-day event. Overall I think the course is a pretty generic layout, and the edge can be found more by breaking down the groups and structuring your teams right.

The Field

This is a WGC event, so there are many of the best golfers in the world and some of the top players from other tours across the globe. There are a few missing names as there always are, but overall the field is loaded with talent. Since it is a World Cup/March Madness-style tournament, the field is limited to 64 spots, which start out in 16 groups of four.

Basically the way this event works is golfers play round robin within their groups (three matches), and then the winners of each group form the final 16 players and battle it out single-elimination style. Getting out of the group is Step 1, and for DFS purposes, that is the 6-for-6 percentage we are shooting for. This is a difficult task, and lineup construction takes on a completely different level of importance.

Kicking pricing off is world No. 1 Dustin Johnson, followed by Players Champion Justin Thomas, who are both north of $11,000. This is going to put tremendous strain on building lineups and every dollar is going to matter this week. This event is different because we will have to structure based on who is in each group rather than who we may want to play in general.


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The Big Question: How do we build for Match Play?

There have only been contests for this type of tournament, so there are still a bunch of people who aren’t thinking about this optimally. Obviously the goal is to get golfers who play the most matches since that means they are winning and getting the opportunity to rack up the most points. For GPPs I don’t see any reason to have two players from the same group, and I think some people will make that mistake, which should provide a solid edge right off the bat. The ideal situation is to have four of your golfers in the semis and the other two losing in the quarters. That cannot happen unless you choose golfers who won’t play each other until those rounds. From there it is basically the same concept as regular DFS golf — we want high-upside players, and stars-and-scrubs seems like the viable strategy at an event like this. It is a fun week to try out a new format, and you could be ahead of a decent percentage of lineups before the tournament even starts if you build correctly.

Similar to a standard week, correlating some skill sets across groups can be an effective strategy given that this event can produce a mixed bag of winners. Having some aggressive-off-tee teams that target a handful of bombers from different pods, while having other teams that lean on pure ball strikers, can allow you to possibly cover some extra bases at a tricky layout. At the end of the day, you need to find the winners of the group, and avoiding a few chalky top seeds is the key to success. Luckily for us, we are in this mindset from March Madness, and a lot of the same theories translate here.

PGA DFS Picks: WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Top Priced: Jon Rahm $10,700 DraftKings

Rahm is in Group 3 with Shane Lowry, Ryan Palmer and Sebastian Munoz. I feel pretty confident in Rahm being able to find a way through here, as he has a well-rounded game and comes in playing solid golf as usual. The ninth-place finish at The Players was disappointing given the expectations, but that he had another good showing with the irons is encouraging. Rahm has gained strokes tee to green in every event going back to August of 2020, and that type of consistency is hard to find on tour. His price is $10,700, but I think he is built to make a deep run in this bracket and is a great starting point in all formats.

Also considering – Patrick Cantlay

Mid-Range: Sergio Garcia $8,300 DraftKings

We are sticking with the Spaniards here, as Garcia in the mid-range worthy of a roster spot this week. He is in a wildly competitive Group 8, which is wide open for a guy like Garcia to take control. He is joined by fellow Euros in Lee Westwood, Matt Wallace and Tyrrell Hatton, which makes for an interesting dynamic. Garcia has plenty of experience in match-play format and is playing well enough for me to feel comfortable in this spot.

Last time we saw Garcia was at The Players where he gained over 8 strokes with the irons en route to a ninth-place finish. He has lost putting in six straight events, which is the concern, but that can easily change at any moment. His ball striking is in a great place, and the rest of the group has question marks of their own, which makes me feel even better with this spot. If Garcia can find a way out, this is the type of mid-range play that is live to win this event, as he thrives in one-on-one competition.

Also considering – Joaquin Niemann   

Lower Priced: Dylan Frittelli $6,500 DraftKings

One of the most difficult things about match play is the pricing is much tighter because certain guys don’t make sense in certain lineups. With only 64 players available, we have fewer choices in general, and this puts a strain on lineup construction across the board. That means we are going to have to roll the dice on a cheapy and hope they pull an upset in a group to move onto the final 16. The guy I’m going with is pure upside, as Frittelli has little to no consistency in his game.

If Frittelli is going to move on, then he has to beat three quality players in Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Jason Kokrak, so we immediately see the challenge here. Frittelli’s form is all over the map, with a 22nd at The Players sandwiched between missed cuts at several other events. The positive is the irons are in good shape, having gained in two straight, but the putter is cold — he has lost strokes putting in six of seven events.

The reason I’m willing to take a shot here is A) The $6,500 price tag opens up the lineup and saves us a ton of salary, and B) Frittelli is the type of guy who can get crazy hot within 18 holes and pull an upset. To me lower-variance players in this format are good if they are the favorite but not the best upset picks because you need an outlier performance. It may not be likely, but I know Frittelli has that gear. For that reason he is in the player pool as a sleeper pick on DraftKings and FanDuel this week.

Also Considering – Russell Henley


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Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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