PGA DFS: Against the Grain Picks & Preview for the Arnold Palmer

Whether it’s your first time reading or you’re a seasoned vet, this article covers GPP PGA DFS picks for fantasy golf. It also breaks the field down into four price categories for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo PGA DFS. The article is meant to be a guiding tool in creating variance in your lineups, which in turn, hopefully, can create an edge against the field.


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Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40,000-plus entries. Each of my big wins has come by going against the grain with some players and pairing them with the right chalk.

Last Week Recap

Cam Davis & Shane Lowry were mentioned as good plays, but so was Hovland and Koepka. Yikes.

In terms of projecting ownership, it was a great week for both parties.

 

Top-10 Projected Golfers by Awesemo.com This Week

For the full list, click here.

PGA DFS Player Focus This Week

This week features 121 players with the top 65 and ties making the cut.

$10,000 and Above

Commentary

Back to our standard offering of five golfers above 10K, and it’s a few familiar names, and maybe a surprise or two. It was just two starts ago where Bryson Dechambeau was 7900, and I was POUNDING THE TABLE for you to play him. Fast forward three weeks, and now he’s fourth on the board, at 10.4K. That should leave some sticker shock for some, leaving him a tad under-owned at 10%. Rory McIlroy is trending to be the highest owned golfer, not only of this slate but of any standard cut event slate. He could come in as high as 35, and possibly even higher in the limited entry contests.

Tommy Fleetwood, a week after his near-win at The Honda Classic, looks to be the lowest owned of this bunch, as gamers pay up for Rory. Tommy boy had a chance to win this event last year as well, and The Players next week. Next week’s field is much stronger, so I expect to see Tommy priced down a bit, and with that will follow ownership, so if you want a low owned Tommy, this is the week to get it.

The last two in this section I didn’t mention, Xander Schauffele, & Hideki Matsuyama, are both trending around 15% this week.

PGA DFS Top Against the Grain Plays

Tommy Fleetwood is going to win one of the next two weeks.

$8,000-$9999

Commentary

Adam Scott will look to continue his hot form in 2020, coming off a lackluster 26th at the WGC Mexico a few weeks ago. That coming the week after his win at The Genesis. Tyrell Hatton makes his second start since returning from injury, and it seems gamers are ready to jump right back in. Collin Morikawa, & Tony Finau represent a little bit of chalk here in this price section, coming in around 15% owned this week.

There are at least five other golfers that will be owned over 10% in this range, and incredibly it looks like Justin Rose won’t be one of those guys. Billy Horschel, Byeong Hun An, Patrick Reed, & Rickie Fowler should all get above 10%, and more ownership than Rose. Sungjae IM coming off of his maiden victory on the PGA Tour will likely be given a bit of an ownership reduction, somewhere in the 10% range, even though he’s the same price as last week. I guess that’s what happens when Rory is in the field.

Course History extraordinaire Marc Leishman will be joined by fellow Aussie Jason Day and will be owned right around 10%. Coming in near that number as well, but expected to be under it are the four remaining players from this price range, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland, Bubba Watson, & Lee Westwood. 

 

PGA DFS Top Against the Grain Plays

I like the first two bolded names on that list of four, Fitzpatrick & Hovland. Maybe Hovland’s ready to play well again a week after bombing out at the Honda? Fitzpatrick was also in the mix here last year, showing his comfort with the course.


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$7,000s

Commentary

A few favorites, Abraham Ancer & Scottie Scheffler, are the popular plays down here, representing a good value in a deeper field this week. They may be the only two golfers from this section that do end up over 10% owned, as gamers spread out their risk, not focusing on any one or two golfers from this section. Others that will get more looks than most are Carlos Ortiz, Maverick McNealy, Kevin Kisner, Max Homa, & Kevin Na. 

Expected to be less or right, around 5% owned include:

  • Joaquin Niemann
  • Wyndham Clark
  • J.T. Poston
  • Brian Harman
  • Lucas Glover 

PGA DFS Top Against the Grain Plays

Poston & Niemann seem undervalued given their upside, but neither is playing all that great right now. There are so many low owned options to choose from.  Which I’ll use to spread out my risk outside of my core four.

$6,000s

Commentary

Patrick Rodgers is going to be 10% owned this week? What did I miss? Don’t get me wrong, he’s playing ok, but he hasn’t had a top 10 in six weeks, dating all the way back to the Desert Classic. He’s been putting incredibly well these last seven weeks, gaining no less than .3 strokes per round. Matthew Nesmith has had a nice stretch as well, making all five cuts in the last seven weeks. That should add up to mild ownership. Familiar names like Cameron Champ, Corey Conners, & Lanto Griffin are all cheap and below 7K once again. They also come with mild ownership and should be on people’s radar this week.


Looking for more PGA DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo PGA home page, just click HERE

Author
Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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