It’s finally that time. The PGA DFS Millionaire Maker is back in our lives, and DraftKings was kind enough to run it twice. Coupling the massive available win upside with the experience of the Masters makes this the greatest week of the professional golf year for me. To win a Millionaire Maker, everything has to go right. I’ve done some research into this in the past, and I’ll make that a part of my article here this week. I’ll also have Awesemo’s top-10 projections and, of course, my Against the Grain picks.
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Millionaire Maker Winning Lineups
Statistics on the Winning Lineups
Fantasy Golf: Awesemo’s Top 10 Projected Players
Click Here for the full set of ownership projections.
PGA DFS Player Focus
PGA DFS Picks: $9,500-$12,000
- 9 Golfers
- Total ownership of around 160%
One of the things that sticks out the most to me is that I have Collin Morikawa quite a bit higher than what others are projecting for him. Most are forecasting Morikawa to be the only golfer in the top 10 projected to draw under 10% ownership. Brooks Koepka was trending that way as well, but his weekend in Houston has bumped him up to the mid-teens.
I think what ends up happening here is that the ownership is much more aligned with the $20 buy-in Millionaire-Maker tournament rather than the big-ticket $4,444 entry. In that contest, you will see more concentration on the golfers projected for more ownership, namely Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm. That should lead to lower ownership for golfers like Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas.
In all, I think it will end up quite evenly spread out in the main Millionaire Maker, with Morikawa and Koepka the clear pivots.
Top Against the Grain Plays
I’m interested to see if the public is ready to go back to Koepka, given he’s been out of form for more than a couple of months. What does seem clear is that PGA DFS players aren’t ready to roster Morikawa at Augusta at this price. If Morikawa is on with his irons, he can compete at any golf course in the world. It should be easy to get double or triple the exposure to the field on both he and Koepka.
PGA DFS Picks: Nos. 11-32 Priced Golfers ($7,500-$9,400)
- 20 Golfers
- Total ownership 216%
Coming off of his best finish in a few years, Hideki Matsuyama rode a hot short game and solid ball striking to a second-place finish last week in Houston. That and his price this week make him one of the two safest plays on the board, alongside TonyFinau. Many highly projected public lineups will start with these two and Johnson, which provides a strong foundation without requiring PGA DFS players to dip below $6,700 for any of the three remaining golfers. That will push ownerships on Matsuyama and Finau close to 25% each this week, likely both higher than 30% in the higher-dollar and single-entry contests.
Webb Simpson and Patrick Reed are the first clicks in the low $9,000 range for me. It seems that no one is believing in the greatest golfer of all time and reigning Masters champion Tiger Woods.
Matthew Fitzpatrick is next on the ownership list, coming in at $7,600, and he has yet to miss a cut here at Augusta in four tries. The opposite can be said for Tyrrell Hatton, who has let Augusta National get the best of him in his few attempts here but is coming into this week in the best form of his life. Ownership for both golfers should be around 15%.
Two Aussies are up next, and while Jason Day has had trouble on Sunday the last few times he’s been in contention, this could be the year that the upside in his game shines through all weekend. He’s trending around 10% exposure, and I think he is a good target for MME GPP play. That way, if he ends up withdrawing, your best/biggest lineup isn’t hurt by having him in it.
Adam Scott has spent the second-least time on the golf course this year out of any PGA Tour player in the field besides Francesco Molinari. Typically at this price in a major, gamers would be lining up to play him. However, he just hasn’t shown us anything in those few starts to get justify ownership this week.
The always dependable Louis Oosthuizen — who only plays poorly if he has his mattress — is coming in around 10-15%, as is Scottie Scheffler, who led the field in strokes gained off the tee last week. In this section, the last golfer I suspect will get close to 10% owned is Justin Rose, who could prove even more popular than that.
That will leave a plethora of golfers, including four former Masters Champions, who will be under 10% owned this week:
- Bubba Watson
- Tiger Woods
- Jordan Spieth
- Phil Mickelson
Others that I suspect will also be under 10% owned include:
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Paul Casey
- Matthew Wolff
- Rickie Fowler
- Sungjae Im
Top Against the Grain Plays:
Only one of those previous nine golfers are coming into this week in good form, and that’s Bubba Watson. He presents a nice second piece pivot off of Matsuyama in this price range. All the other eight golfers have problems, including Sungjae Im, who has made eight cuts in eight tries over the past 10 weeks.
Of course, I won’t be able to pass up making Tiger/Spieth lineups in the main Millionaire Maker this week, and I’ll probably even throw in Morikawa to go for gold.
PGA DFS Picks: The Rest ($7,400 and Below)
- 64 golfers
- Total ownership 220%
This large tier offers just four or five standout golfers but plenty who will garner ownership this week. The standouts at the top are enticing and also show up in plenty of highly projected lineups. The names that continually show up and are projected for more than 10% ownership this week include Jason Kokrak, Cameron Smith, Cameron Champ, Ian Poulter and Abraham Ancer. Other golfers who could be vying for the same level of ownership include Shane Lowry, Zach Johnson and Lanto Griffin.
The next batch of golfers is coming in around 5-10% popularity and includes:
- Corey Conners
- Si Woo Kim
- Billy Horschel
- Sebastian Munoz
- Kevin Kisner
- Francesco Molinari
- Matt Kuchar
With 64 total PGA DFS options in this section, we have a couple lower-owned names that I’ll have in my lineups this week. Lee Westwood, Kevin Na and Brandt Snedeker should all be below 5% ownership.
Top Against the Grain PGA DFS Plays
I’m not going to lie; I really like the chalk in this section. I’ve played most of them in my big-dollar lineups on the two different sites. Munoz and Molinari are interesting, as is Westwood.
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